Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
TODAY AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND BOUNDARIES
MOVING ACROSS KY AND TN SETTING OFF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS HIGH NE TN
AND SW VA SO NO CONVECTION IN THAT AREA AS YET. HOWEVER COMPLEX
ACROSS SE KY MOVING THAT DIRECTION AND EXPECTING ALL AREAS WILL BE
AFFECTED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO
FINALLY BRING WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS GOING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TN AND AR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY (WHICH SHOULD GIVE THE FRONT A GOOD PUSH). HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN STALL-OUT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THAT MULTIPLE MCSS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. ITS TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT OF THIS
SCENARIO...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL BASICALLY GO WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MINS AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  70  87  69  93  70 /  50  50  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN    68  86  66  90  66 /  60  50  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN            69  86  66  90  66 /  60  50  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN   65  83  62  88  63 /  60  60  20  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TD/DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-231000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
930 AM EDT (830 AM CDT) TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD POSSIBLY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DEERLODGE               36.20N 84.76W
07/22/2008                   MORGAN             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN DEERLODGE.

&&

SEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
436 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OOLTEWAH                35.06N 85.09W
07/22/2008                   HAMILTON           TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN OOLTEWAH.

&&

SEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
442 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE PIKEVILLE          35.66N 85.13W
07/22/2008                   BLEDSOE            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

SEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
507 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUNBRIGHT               36.24N 84.67W
07/22/2008                   MORGAN             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HUGH JONES RD.

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S SUNBRIGHT           36.18N 84.67W
07/22/2008                   MORGAN             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON PILOT MOUNTAIN RD.

&&

SEP