Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
TODAY AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND BOUNDARIES
MOVING ACROSS KY AND TN SETTING OFF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS HIGH NE TN
AND SW VA SO NO CONVECTION IN THAT AREA AS YET. HOWEVER COMPLEX
ACROSS SE KY MOVING THAT DIRECTION AND EXPECTING ALL AREAS WILL BE
AFFECTED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO
FINALLY BRING WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS GOING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TN AND AR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY (WHICH SHOULD GIVE THE FRONT A GOOD PUSH). HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN STALL-OUT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THAT MULTIPLE MCSS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. ITS TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT OF THIS
SCENARIO...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL BASICALLY GO WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MINS AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  70  87  69  93  70 /  50  50  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN    68  86  66  90  66 /  60  50  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN            69  86  66  90  66 /  60  50  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN   65  83  62  88  63 /  60  60  20  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TD/DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-231000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
930 AM EDT (830 AM CDT) TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD POSSIBLY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
153 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

TNZ081-082-221845-
BLEDSOE-SEQUATCHIE-
1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AFFECTING BLEDSOE AND SEQUATCHIE
COUNTIES...

AT 1246 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUNLAP...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

LCM

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