Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
237 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MODELS AND SREF NOW SHOW OHIO
VALLEY MCS REMAINING RELATIVELY INTACT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY EFFECTING AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS
APPEARS HIGH CHANCE POPS PROJECTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED.
FOR TEMPS...FOLLOWED MAV GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW TWEAKS TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS IN SOME SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A SURFACE FRONT AND A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS THE 300 MB JET PUSHES EAST. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND THE NAM KEEPS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN...WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST...AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SMALL SHORTWAVES MAY PASS THROUGH
EACH DAY...BUT THESE FEATURES ARE TOO SMALL TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT.
WILL FOLLOW CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE...AND HAVE DIRUNAL POPS EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  92  71  91  71 /  20  20  20  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  88  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  40  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  88  70  87  70 /  30  40  30  50  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  83  66  84  66 /  50  50  40  50  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

LCM/DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
607 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-081015-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
607 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /507 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NE BRISTOL VA           36.61N 82.17W
07/06/2008                   CITY OF BRISTOL    VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 TREE DOWN NE OF BRISTOL. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NE BRISTOL VA           36.61N 82.17W
07/06/2008                   CITY OF BRISTOL    VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 TREE DOWN NE OF BRISTOL. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

SEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
342 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAYESVILLE              35.05N 83.82W
07/06/2008                   CLAY               NC   UTILITY COMPANY

            FEW TREES DOWN NEAR HAYESVILLE. REPORTED BY UTILITY
            COMPANY.

1225 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MURPHY                  35.09N 84.03W
07/07/2008                   CHEROKEE           NC   UTILITY COMPANY

            FEW TREES DOWN AROUND MURPHY. REPORTED BY UTILITY
            COMPANY.

1245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NE COSBY                35.81N 83.25W
07/07/2008                   COCKE              TN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            1 TREE DOWN NE OF COSBY. REPORTED BY HWY DEPT.

&&

SEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
349 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROGERSVILLE             36.41N 83.01W
07/07/2008                   HAWKINS            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN ROGERSVILLE AND SURGOINSVILLE. REPORTED BY
            DISPATCHER.

&&

MEP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
457 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

TNZ012>014-037-072200-
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-SCOTT-UNION-
457 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...SCOTT AND
UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM...

AT 451 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.

WINDS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
600 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

TNZ012>014-037-072300-
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-SCOTT-UNION-
600 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...SCOTT AND
UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM...

AT 555 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.

WINDS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DMG

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