Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
237 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MODELS AND SREF NOW SHOW OHIO
VALLEY MCS REMAINING RELATIVELY INTACT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY EFFECTING AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS
APPEARS HIGH CHANCE POPS PROJECTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARRANTED.
FOR TEMPS...FOLLOWED MAV GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW TWEAKS TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS IN SOME SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A SURFACE FRONT AND A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
AS THE 300 MB JET PUSHES EAST. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND THE NAM KEEPS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN...WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST...AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SMALL SHORTWAVES MAY PASS THROUGH
EACH DAY...BUT THESE FEATURES ARE TOO SMALL TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT.
WILL FOLLOW CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE...AND HAVE DIRUNAL POPS EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  92  71  91  71 /  20  20  20  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  88  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  40  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  88  70  87  70 /  30  40  30  50  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  83  66  84  66 /  50  50  40  50  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

LCM/DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
607 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-081015-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
607 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 /507 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

TNZ016-017-042-044-072000-
HAWKINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON-
321 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AFFECTING GREENE...HAWKINS...
SULLIVAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 318 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SURGOINSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF COLONIAL HEIGHTS BY 355 PM EDT.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

DGS