Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
BRING THE NEEDED LIFT TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG AND A FEW COULD BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS LATER DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES OVER 1.7 INCHES
WHICH WILL POSE A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE AS THE WET BULB ZERO IS AROUND 12K FEET. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
TODAYS STORMS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. /04

THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS LOW. /04

.LONG TERM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...KEEPS A FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF ON UP ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING THIS ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF...SUGGESTS A MODERATE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I65 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY.
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TREND DOWNWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO DAMPEN. THE UPPER TROF
IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE...BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF BY
MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS.
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BEING LOCALLY FORCED BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/SEA
BREEZE OVER THE LAND DURING THE DAY AND OVER THE WATER AT NIGHT WITH
BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE LAND. TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL
NORMALS. /10

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY...AND A
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY ONE TO TWO
FEET. /04

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  70  90  70 /  50  30  40  20
PENSACOLA   89  74  86  72 /  50  40  50  20
DESTIN      88  75  85  74 /  50  40  60  30
EVERGREEN   88  67  88  66 /  50  40  40  20
WAYNESBORO  87  66  90  65 /  60  30  20  10
CAMDEN      88  66  90  67 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
843 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-221200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
843 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES.  ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE MAIN RISKS
WITH THE STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG WITH BRIEF
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON SUNDAY...THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65...INCLUDING THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.  FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AWAY FROM ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
149 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

ALZ061-MSZ075-076-078-079-211915-
UPPER MOBILE-GEORGE-STONE-PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUCEDALE AND WIGGINS...
149 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER GEORGE...STONE...
PERRY...GREENE AND MOBILE COUNTIES...

AT 142 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS FOUND A
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF LUCEDALE TO 3 MILES
WEST OF WIGGINS...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THE BAND OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
LUCEDALE...LUCEDALE...EVANSTON AND PERKINSTON THROUGH 215 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.