Marine Weather Statement 20, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...CURRENTLY WATCHING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING STORMS
OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVING ACROSS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES OVER 1.7 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO COOL 500 MB TEMPS  -8C WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG...A FEW COULD EVEN GET TO
SEVERE LEVELS WITH DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL TO SIZE OF NICKELS THE MAIN
THREATS. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO NORTHWESTERN ZONES ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.
/13

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS TO RISE AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT PW VALUES FALL TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /13

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH PROMOTES A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.  WILL SEE SOME DRAINAGE AT NIGHT WHICH VEERS
WINDS TO A WEST TO NORTHERLY COMPONENT...AND THIS LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DIFFUSE SURFACE TROF SETTLES TO NEAR THE
GULF COAST.  SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY ONE TO TWO FEET. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEPER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  87  70  91 /  20  50  30  40
PENSACOLA   72  87  72  87 /  10  50  30  50
DESTIN      75  86  75  87 /  10  50  40  50
EVERGREEN   67  86  68  90 /  20  50  40  30
WAYNESBORO  69  86  66  90 /  50  50  30  20
CAMDEN      68  87  66  91 /  30  50  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND
     INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-212200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
530 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS RETURNING
NORTHWARD OVER MISSISSIPPI...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH LARGE HAIL AND WINDS
GUSTING TO 60 MPH THE GREATEST THREATS

ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE CAPPED
DUE TO WARMER AIR ALOFT. CONSIDERING THIS...ALONG WITH A DRIER
ENVIRONMENT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET GOING IN
THESE AREAS.

DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE BEACHES...TIDAL
RANGES AVERAGING NEAR ONE AND A HALF FEET AND AN OUTGOING TIDE...A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...A HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.