Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
303 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES...
...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE FIRST PERIOD AS FORECASTERS WATCH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS THE RESULT OF POOLING
MOISTURE (1000-850MB MIXING RATIOS 10-13 G/KG) AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING BY THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OF 110-120 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...A SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET ( 50 KNOTS) ALONG WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE...WHEN CONSIDERING
THE SURFACE WINDS...CREATES FAVORABLE SHEARS...MORE THAN ADEQUATE
FOR DEEP AND PERSISTENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS =>ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AS BEEN FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE QUITE THE
OPPOSITE IN THE RADAR REPRESENTATION WHICH HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE WHEN
CONSIDERING THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DIAGNOSIS.
THE DEGREE OF SHEAR AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS ALONG WITH APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TORNADO WATCH BOX 17 CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM
CST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SHELTER QUICKLY IN THE CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR
AREA. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE FRONT EASTWARD TONIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. THE MAIN
PROBLEM THIS CAUSES IS A 4 TO 8 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE
SOLUTIONS...WARMER MINS NOTED IN THE NAM WHILE COOLER IN THE GFS.
GIVEN THE SPREAD AND THE POTENTIAL THAT THE FRONT COULD SLOW AS
DYNAMICS LIFT NORTHEAST...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
NIGHTTIME LOWS. FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
SETTING UP. /10

.LONG TERM...A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED GULF
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES/HEIGHT FALLS
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE SFC LOW SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE RAINFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AGAIN...THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST SO
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AFTER THE ONSET OF NEW DATA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MON NIGHT BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL...DRY AIR FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
START THE EXTENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND END SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. 10/13

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...RESULTING
IN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...EXPECT A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WIND FLOW THAT WILL SHIFT TO
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. DESPITE DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES/DURATION. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      50  62  40  64 /  80  05  05  10
PENSACOLA   54  61  44  65 /  80  10  05  10
DESTIN      57  63  46  64 /  70  10  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  62  35  65 /  80  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  44  61  35  64 /  60  05  05  10
CAMDEN      45  60  36  65 /  80  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1210 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-111200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1210 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE NAUTICAL MILE
OVER SOME PARTS OF THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS
TODAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF
LATE MORNING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WAS NOT VERY
UNSTABLE...BUT BOTH INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS JET WILL PROVIDE MORE
OF A SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION MORE SO THAN A DIRECTIONAL TYPE
SHEAR...BUT THE SPEED SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A TORNADO
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND SOME OF THESE ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER
AND DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A THREAT OF LONG LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
WIGGINS...CHATOM...CAMDEN LINE.

A STRONG SQUALL LINE WILL THEN BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 400 PM OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 600 PM AND 900 PM THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE
INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...THIS LINE WILL MORE LIKELY BE
PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... BUT LARGE HAIL
AND SHORT LIVED ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
LINE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY MOSTLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BUCKATUNNA              31.54N 88.53W
01/10/2008                   WAYNE              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

CACERES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1211 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 WNW MILLRY            31.64N 88.35W
01/10/2008                   WASHINGTON         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED 5 MILES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

&&

CACERES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1228 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     HAIL             BUCKATUNNA              31.54N 88.53W
01/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       WAYNE              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CACERES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 W COFFEEVILLE         31.76N 88.12W
01/10/2008                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUND REPORTED NEAR HIGHWAY 84 TOMBIGBEE RIVER
            BRIDGE.

&&

CACERES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
128 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     COFFEEVILLE             31.76N 88.09W
01/10/2008                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BETWEEN 1230 PM AND 1250 PM NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A LARGE
            FUNNEL CLOUD TRACKING FROM COFFEEVILLE TO THOMASVILLE.

&&

CACERES