Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM PER SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE. MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...COMBINED WITH
DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS...SETTING UP FAVORABLE
SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE
EXPECTED HAZARDS WITH THIS BATCH OF STORMS.

SECOND BATCH OF SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WIND HAZARD WITH THIS CONVECTION...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
LINEAR IN NATURE GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AND
LIFTING MECHANISMS EXIT. MILD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA...FROM SIMILAR READINGS ACROSS SOURCE REGION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

18Z NAM HAS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OF JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. CAPES RISE TO 4000 J/KG ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES NORTH. NAM IS A BIT QUICKER THAN GFS IN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL GO TOWARDS THIS SLIGHTLY QUICKER
MOVEMENT. EVEN SO THE FORECAST AREA MAY LACK A TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. HOWEVER WITH CAPES
AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CAP SEEN IN THE 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP.

BOTH MODELS WOULD TAKE COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE CONVECTIVE
MINIMUM TIME SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER ANY UPSTREAM MCS WOULD
STILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT.

WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
OF MILWAUKEE. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...SO THIS WOULD BE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.

LARGE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH GENERATES SOME
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH GOING TO A MOVE ZONAL JET
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FRONT IS A BIT
DIFFERENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS...WITH ECMWF BRINGING MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY THAN GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME SEVERE...MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MID EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN SCATTERED NATURE...WILL JUST
INCLUDE THE CB SUFFIX ON THE CLOUD GROUPS FOR NOW. DID TRY TO TIME
POSSIBLE LINEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES WITHIN THUNDERSTORM
DOWNDRAFTS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAY SEE
SOME MVFR FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD FROM
FORMING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD MIXING FROM THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS
DESCRIBED IN MAIN DISCUSSION. MAY SEE FREQUENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MIXING OF WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
516 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-111100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
516 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

SOME LAKES...RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A
PORTION OF THE ROCK RIVER IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING...WITH THE STRETCH OF THE RIVER
NEAR NEWVILLE STILL AT MAJOR FLOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
AROUND 90 ARE EXPECTED IN MILWAUKEE COUNTY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

A PORTION OF THE ROCK RIVER WILL REMAIN IN MODERATE FLOOD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
FALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-111100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
516 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING...WITH STORMS
BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...AND AGAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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