Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM PER SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE. MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...COMBINED WITH
DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS...SETTING UP FAVORABLE
SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE
EXPECTED HAZARDS WITH THIS BATCH OF STORMS.

SECOND BATCH OF SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WIND HAZARD WITH THIS CONVECTION...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
LINEAR IN NATURE GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AND
LIFTING MECHANISMS EXIT. MILD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA...FROM SIMILAR READINGS ACROSS SOURCE REGION ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

18Z NAM HAS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OF JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. CAPES RISE TO 4000 J/KG ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES NORTH. NAM IS A BIT QUICKER THAN GFS IN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL GO TOWARDS THIS SLIGHTLY QUICKER
MOVEMENT. EVEN SO THE FORECAST AREA MAY LACK A TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. HOWEVER WITH CAPES
AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CAP SEEN IN THE 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP.

BOTH MODELS WOULD TAKE COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE CONVECTIVE
MINIMUM TIME SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER ANY UPSTREAM MCS WOULD
STILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT.

WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
OF MILWAUKEE. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...SO THIS WOULD BE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.

LARGE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH GENERATES SOME
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH GOING TO A MOVE ZONAL JET
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FRONT IS A BIT
DIFFERENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS...WITH ECMWF BRINGING MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY THAN GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME SEVERE...MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MID EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN SCATTERED NATURE...WILL JUST
INCLUDE THE CB SUFFIX ON THE CLOUD GROUPS FOR NOW. DID TRY TO TIME
POSSIBLE LINEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES WITHIN THUNDERSTORM
DOWNDRAFTS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAY SEE
SOME MVFR FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD FROM
FORMING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD MIXING FROM THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS
DESCRIBED IN MAIN DISCUSSION. MAY SEE FREQUENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MIXING OF WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1256 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-111100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1256 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

SOME LAKES...RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A
PORTION OF THE ROCK RIVER IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING...WITH THE STRETCH OF THE RIVER
NEAR NEWVILLE STILL AT MAJOR FLOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

A PORTION OF THE ROCK RIVER WILL REMAIN IN MODERATE FLOOD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
FALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ643>646-111100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
1256 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING...WITH STORMS
BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
201 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-102030-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...
WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
201 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 677 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR
ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

AT 155 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG A LINE
FROM FOX LAKE...TO WEST BEND...TO PORT WASHINGTON. THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
DODGE...NORTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN OZAUKEE...FOND DU LAC...AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM. THEY MAY PRODUCE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH...BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.

DOPPLER RADAR ALSO INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA CROSSE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
50 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

IF THESE STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR PACE...THEY WILL REACH NORTHERN SAUK
COUNTY AROUND LA VALLE BY 4 PM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS...ESPECIALLY
ON LAKES OR RIVERS...SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER RADIO OR THEIR
FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE IF
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
210 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             PORT WASHINGTON         43.38N 87.87W
07/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       OZAUKEE            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LAMERS/KUHLMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
228 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW SAUKVILLE          43.37N 87.96W
07/10/2008                   OZAUKEE            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE BLOWN DOWN INTO A ROADWAY.

&&

LAMERS/KUHLMAN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-102215-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...
WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
341 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 677 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

AT 340 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BOWED LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE WAS ABOUT 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LA
CROSSE...OR ABOUT 60 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF THE WISCONSIN DELLS.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 50 MPH.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 58
MPH...AND 62 MPH...WERE MEASURED IN THE LA CROSSE AREA AROUND 320
PM CDT.

AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOST LIKELY EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS...TO HARTLAND...TO MILWAUKEE.

IF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT PACE...IT WOULD
BEGIN AFFECTING NORTHWESTERN SAUK COUNTY AROUND 415 PM...AND
THE BARABOO AND LELAND AREAS BY 5 PM. THE MADISON METROPOLITAN
AREA WOULD BE AFFECTED AROUND 530 PM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS...ESPECIALLY
ON LAKES OR RIVERS...SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER RADIO OR THEIR
FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY...SO SKIES MAY DARKEN
ONLY MINUTES BEFORE THEY HIT. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

LAMERS