River Flood Warning 60, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
401 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND THEN HANDLING
POPS INTO MID WEEK.

WATER VAPOR/RUC COMBO SHOWS STG 36 UNIT VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD FROM
KMSP WITH 995MB SFC LOW VCNTY LAKE SUPERIOR. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WORKING ACRS CWA WHILE DEF ZONE PCPN ASSOC WITH VORT WRAPPING EWD
INTO WRN WI. WITH VORT LIFTING NEWD THINK PCPN SHIELD WILL MISS
GLANCING THE NW PART OF OUR CWA. 11/3 IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LLVL
RH WITH STRATUS EXTENDING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN IA. WILL BANK ON
SOME BREAKS EVOLVING TODAY AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. AXIS OF
4MB 3 HR PRES RISES ACRS THE CWA ATTM THO GRADIENT PROGGD TO REMAIN
FAIRLY TIGHT TODAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXINESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DAVA ALSO AIDING IN THE
TRANSFER OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM. CORE OF COLDEST H8 TEMPS AFFECT THE
CWA THIS MRNG WITH WARMING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE DAY WEARS ALONG.

WEAK RIDGING PROGGD FOR TONIGHT WITH MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF PCPN WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. WILL BACK OFF ON THE PCPN CHCS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RESTRICT TO FAR SW PART OF THE CWA.

FOR SUNDAY THE IDEA FROM YESTERDAY THAT THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN
WAS AN OUTLIER SEEMS TO BE COMING TO FRUITION AS THE 00Z RUN HAS
REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH AND NORTHWEST POSITIONING OF THE
SFC AND H8 LOW FROM IL INTO LWR MI. NEVERTHELESS SOME UPPER DVRG
ON ERN SIDE OF APPCH TROUGH...THO BEST DVRG SOUTH OF CWA VCNTY RRQ
OF JET. UPPER TROUGH TO PROGRESSIVELY GET CARVED OUT ACRS THE CWA.
LEAD SHORT WAVE AFFECTS THE CWA SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
COMING ACRS THE CWA SUN NGT INTO MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE
SOME MIXY POTENTIAL ESP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLDER H8
TEMPS ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH PROGGD TO EXIT THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH NW UPPER FLOW
INTO WEDNESDAY. FLOW LOOKS SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS HINTS AT SHEARED VORTS MAY GENERATE LIGHT QPF. 00Z
ECMWF SHOWING THE START OF RETURN OF WAA INDUCED PCPN AS SOON AS
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER BETTER FORCING PROGGD TO OUR NW ACRS NRN WI AND
MN...SO WILL WILL LEAVE DRY FCST INTACT FOR WEDNESDAY ATTM.

&&
10

.AVIATION...STRONG LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.  STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD WILL
BRING MVFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
LOW WILL BRING GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED...SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING.  SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA.
HIGHEST WAVES WOULD BE TOWARD OPEN WATER...GIVEN THE MAINLY OFFSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
352 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-271130-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
352 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MANY RIVERS...INCLUDING THE FOX...ROCK...SUGAR...CRAWFISH...
PECATONICA AND SHEBOYGAN RIVERS WILL BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERAL RIVERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-271130-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
352 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES TO 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
245 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW BELMONT            42.77N 90.37W
04/26/2008  M3.18 INCH       LAFAYETTE          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3.18INCHES TWO DAY TOTAL.

&&

HENTZ

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