River Flood Warning 54, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...NEAR TERM FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING
WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
SECONDARY SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES.

SEVERE CONVECTION REFIRING ALONG ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.  SFC CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXITING FAR EAST AFT 03Z.  18Z KDVN MID LEVEL CAP
ERODING RAPIDLY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OF 70 DEGREE DEWPTS
ALONG FRONT.  IMPRESSIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AND VGP PARAMETER
HAS INCREASED TO 0.3 OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  LCL REMAIN
LOW...AROUND 3K FEET FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8 DEGREES.  TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WILL LET FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE IN WEST THROUGH 6 PM UNTIL CONVECTION
CLEARS AREA.

EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
COLD FRONT...SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  TEMPERATURES LATE TNGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE WEST.  PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT
WITH BLUSTERY WEST WINDS...WL CUT GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY.  GFS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY
WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION ON SUNDAY BUT
LATEST ECMWF BACKING OFF ON FORCING AND AMOUNT OF QPF.  SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLES INCREASE PERCENT OF MEASUREABLE PRECIP TO 60 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINS LOW ON SUNDAY.  WITH IMPRESSIVE LAYER 2-D
FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS AND ITS RESPONSE...WL LEAVE LKLY WORDING IN
FOR SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH WARM PAVEMENT...WL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS
NEGLIGIBLE ON SUN...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS SUN NGT.  NOT ALOT OF
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT CONCERNING PRECIP FORECAST FOR LAST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON RIDGING AND QUIET WEATHER FOR
FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES EXPONENTIALLY FOR LATER PERIODS AS GFS SHOWING LARGE RUN
TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN HANDLING OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN CONUS.  HI RES ECMWF SHOWING MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION FOR
EVENTUAL SHORT WAVE EJECTING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...WHILE
GFS WELL TO THE NORTH.  HOWEVER GFS ENSEMBLES IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE HANGING OVER UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THURSDAY. HENCE REMOVED PRECIP FROM WED NGT...BUT WL HANG ONTO SMALL
CHANCE IN LATER PERIODS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER GFS
TYPICALLY UNDERDOES AMOUNT OF DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE EAST...SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FUTURE SHIFTS REMOVE PRECIP FROM THU
PERIOD.

GFS 5DAY 500MB ANOMOLIES SHOW SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THRU
THE END OF THE MONTH AS LONG WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL CAN.
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM FOR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AND HEIGHTS TO START
OUT THE NEW MONTH AS MORE ZONAL TO WSW FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY IS
TIMING OF EXPECTED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 21Z. GIVEN CURRENT NATURE OF
CONVECTION IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...CONFIDENT THAT
MOST OF IT WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SO...WILL TIME CONVECTION AROUND KMSN BY 22Z...AND KMKE AND KENW BY
00Z SATURDAY. SHOULD REMAIN PREVAILING VFR CATEGORY CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES...WITH SOME MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORMS
AT TIMES. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT SHOULD ENABLE GOOD MIXING OF
WINDS IN LOW LEVELS DOWN TO SURFACE THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS TO PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECTED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
MAY BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT TIMES. COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT WILL BRING GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
MIX DOWN AT TIMES FROM 1000 FEET AGL...SO WILL GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHEST WAVES WOULD BE
TOWARD OPEN WATER...GIVEN THE MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 00Z/26 WIZ056-062-063-067>069.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVY 03Z/26 UNTIL 00Z/27 LMZ643>636.
&&

MBK/WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
820 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-260930-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
820 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERAL RIVERS...INCLUDING THE FOX RIVER AND THE ROCK RIVER...WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERAL RIVERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER
REPORTS FROM EARLIER ON FRIDAY ARE STILL APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-260930-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
820 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.  WIND GUSTS MAY
YET REACH 40 KNOTS IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 10 PM TONIGHT...DUE TO
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY...DUE TO
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT THURSDAY.

MBK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
849 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BOLTONVILLE             43.53N 88.10W
04/25/2008                   WASHINGTON         WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GENERAL FLOODING OF ROADS IN THE TOWNSHIP OF FARMINGTON.

&&

REM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
855 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HINGHAM                 43.64N 87.91W
04/25/2008                   SHEBOYGAN          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THE ROAD AT STATE HIGHWAY 57 AND
            COUNTY HIGHWAY F.

&&

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
929 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEWAUKEE                43.09N 88.25W
04/25/2008                   WAUKESHA           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BRANCHES BLOCKING SOME ROADS AND SOME POWER LINES
            DOWN IN PEWAUKEE...BROOKFIELD AND DOUSMAN BETWEEN 715 PM
            AND 730 PM. REPORTS OF SMALL TREE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN
            COUNTY-WIDE IN THE SAME TIME FRAME.

&&

KRR