Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONGOING SVR TSTM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA WITH DIGGING UPR TROF. PRIMARY THREAT IS
LARGE HAIL WITH LOW WBZ AND FRZG LVL. UPPED POPS TO 80% BASED ON
CURRENT COVERAGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LEFT LINGERING 20 POPS COAST FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN CLEARING
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW DEW POINTS UPSTREAM SO WENT TOWARD COOLER
MOS GDNC FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH AND DRY PERIOD WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
VERY COOL TEMPS WITH RECORD MINS PSBL THU NIGHT. WENT WITH COOLER
MOS GDNC GIVEN VERY DRY AIR MASS. SFC HIGH WILL WEAKEN FRI-SAT WITH
SOME AIR MASS MODERATION BUT WENT TOWARD COOLER NAM GDNC FOR MIN
TEMPS AGAIN FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATING TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN HIGH PRES WILL BE
REINFORCED FROM N MON-WED WITH COOLER TEMPS AGAIN. NO PCPN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT WILL END THIS
EVENING WHEN FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH A VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF
RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AVERAGING AROUND 5 KNOTS.

REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. 12Z
GFS/NAM IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES SO TRIMMED BACK
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO END AT 12Z THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS FOR THE MOST PART FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER HIGH
WILL BUILD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
455 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-020900-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
455 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NCZ103-104-020900-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
455 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THERE IS MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NCZ095-020900-
CARTERET-
455 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THERE IS MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NCZ098-020900-
ONSLOW-
455 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THERE IS MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             VANCEBORO               35.30N 77.16W
10/01/2008  E0.75 INCH       CRAVEN             NC   PUBLIC

&&

AUSTIN