Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1144 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE SVR TSTM THREAT THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...PARAMETERS ARE LINING UP FOR DECENT CHANCE
OF SVR. BELIEVE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL DUE TO LOW WBZ AND
FRZNG LVL BUT WIND FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLD THREAT OF SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES. MODIFIED SOUNDING GIVES WBZ OF 9300...FRZG LVL
10200...RESULTING IN VIL OF DAY OF 50-55 AND 55 DBZ CORE HGT OF
18000. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY WESTERN AND NRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN AND
ERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING...AND MENTIONED SOME STORMS PSBL SVR. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS.

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ENDING THE THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IN SEVERAL PIECES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING PLEASANTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
WHICH WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.

MODERATION TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL CALLING FOR A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURES. A WEAK BACKDDOR FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED A SECOND
STRONGER REINFORCING HIGH FROM THE NORTH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF
THIS HIGH IS AS STRONG AS THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS INDICATING
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD BASES
3500-4000 FT. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. A FEW STORMS
MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. TIMEFRAME OF GREATEST THREAT BETWEEEN 18Z AND 02Z. MOST
LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE AFFECTED WILL BE PGV AND ISO. FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR/SKC AFTER MIDNIGHT

VFR TO DOMINATE IN THE EXTENDED WITH DRY HIGH PRES RULING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST COASTAL/BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. SEAS RUNNING 2-4 FEET. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS COULD
POSE A THREAT TO MARINE INTERESTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY AROUND 02-04Z
BRINGING A QUICK END TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENT
MARINE ZONES LOOK VERY GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
455 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-020900-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
455 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NCZ103-104-020900-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
455 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THERE IS MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NCZ095-020900-
CARTERET-
455 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THERE IS MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NCZ098-020900-
ONSLOW-
455 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COUPLE OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THERE IS MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
226 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     HAIL             3 SW KINSTON            35.24N 77.63W
10/01/2008  E0.75 INCH       LENOIR             NC   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON TYREE ROAD.

&&

BCULLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             BLOUNTS CREEK           35.36N 76.98W
10/01/2008  E1.75 INCH       BEAUFORT           NC   PUBLIC

&&

CQD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
310 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             6 NW WENONA             35.79N 76.71W
10/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY 99

&&

AUSTIN