Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
402 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND MOVE OFF THE
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLDFRONT
CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ACTIVE NIGHT LIKELY AS STRONG SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND MOVES EAST. MCS NOW CROSSING NORTHERN GEORGIA
AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. INSTABILITY STILL LIMITED
ACROSS OUR CWA CURRENTLY GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINTS...BUT AS LOW
QUICKLY MOVES EAST...THINK THE WARM SECTOR WILL MOVE NORTH WITH
SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS LIKELY. WITH SOME DESTABILIZATION...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND THUS SPC HAS AREA JUST TO OUR SOUTH
IN A MODERATE SVR RISK. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A HAIL
THREAT WILL EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS/TORNADO THREAT.
THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE AROUND 00Z AND END BY 06Z
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE LOW MOVEMENT. WITH
CAA KICKING IN LATE TONIGHT...MINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT GUSTY W/NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY STILL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LIGHTER WINDS AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MINS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S MOST
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK CAA STILL UNDERWAY ON MONDAY...MAX
TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S WITH ANOTHER NIGHT INTO THE 30S MOST
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOK TO BE OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS. AREA TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BY FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM AROUND 250 DEGREES AT 50
KNOTS. SOME COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
50 KNOTS. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING TO WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY JUST TO THE NORTH. WINDS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY...GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S.
BEHIND THE CONVECTION CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THEN SLOWLY BECOME VFR.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING...SUSTAINED AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20S.

VFR WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WENT WITH THE 12Z GFS FOR THE SHORT-RANGE PERIOD THROUGH DAY 3 OF
THE FORECAST. FOR DAYS 4-7 HPC IS AGAIN FAVORING THE ECMWF OVER THE
GFS. LOW PRESSURE RACING EAST NORTHEAST WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE
VA/NC BORDER THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. WARM FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AS A RESULT. AN
AREA OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MARINE AREA FROM THE WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE FROM AROUND 250 DEGREES AT 50 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY SWITCHABLE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING WEST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR GALES
ACROSS ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE STARTING/ENDING TIMES FOR THE SCA/GALES. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREDOMINATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO
THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
VEERING TO WEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-160900-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
351 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES.
A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEW BERN TO KINSTON
WHERE A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

NCZ095-160900-
CARTERET-
351 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WIND ADVISORY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES.
A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEW BERN TO KINSTON
WHERE A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

NCZ103-160900-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
351 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WIND ADVISORY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES.
A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEW BERN TO KINSTON
WHERE A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD BE REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

NCZ104-160900-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
351 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WIND ADVISORY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES.
A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEW BERN TO KINSTON
WHERE A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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