Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
354 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S INTO THE GOFMEX WITH
THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE FIRST AREA OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S
FLA AND THE ATLC WTRS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND THE
RIDGE SINKS TO THE S VERTICAL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL. THIS MAY ALLOW THIS FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
PART OVER THE GULFSTREAM. A SECOND LINE IS DEVELOPING IN THE
EASTERN GULF ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE QUESTION HOW INTENSE IT WILL
GET DUE TO THE ABOVE VERTICAL STRUCTURE. AND YET A THIRD CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. SO IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS S FLA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING FOR THE SW CST AND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE E CST AND HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGH TO SWEEP ACROSS S FLA THIS
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH KAPF AROUND 02Z AND OFF
THE SE CST BY 06Z WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS THE FASTEST. SFC
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE NE GULF BY 12Z THU AND THEN SHIFT
RAPIDLY E AS THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS, OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES BACK ACROSS S
FLA WITH THE GFS INDICATING A SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE AS A
RESULT. FOR NOW, HAVE JUST SHOWN ISOLD POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC SHORTWAVE
CARVING OUT A DEEPER LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
THIS SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS S FLA ON MONDAY. THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN, ALBEIT A TAD SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE MEX HAS BEEN LOWERING TEMPS AND NOW IS
INDICATING MINIMUMS IN THE 40S OVER INTERIOR ZONES AND MID 50S
ELSEWHERE FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTY AIRPORTS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF LULL FROM MID-
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS MID-LEVEL DRYING AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE SPREAD OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF CURRENT ACTIVITY.
NONETHELESS...WILL FORECAST LIFTING/SCATTERING OF STRATUS BUT
LEAVE VCTS/CB IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD...GIVEN
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID-
AFTERNOON...AS PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SSW-WSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KAPF AROUND 14/02Z AND 14/04Z
FOR EAST COAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NNW AND CLEARING SKIES.
70/DD

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE RETAINING STRONG STATUS OVR THE ATLC WTRS
INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND THUS SCA LEFT UP. THESE WINDS WILL BE
VEERING TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND THEY THUS
WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, BUT ONLY TO REBUILD IN THE GULFSTREAM AS WINDS VEER
TO THE N AND THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS S FLA, MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION NOW THAT RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, A FIRE
WX WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE POSTED LATER TODAY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THAT WOULD INCLUDE THE INTERIOR ZONES ONLY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  73  62  81 / 30 -  10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  60  75  66  81 / 30 -  10 20
MIAMI            59  76  66  83 / 30 -  10 20
NAPLES           56  73  56  81 / 20 -  -  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT GLADES AND
     HENDRY COUNTIES.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1157 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-140500-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1146 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 6 PM...
...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA AGAIN TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUING TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREATS.

TORNADOES: THERE IS SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH,
BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE, COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH.

FLOODING: TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR URBAN FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WAVES: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TODAY, CREATING HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM WILL REMAIN IN THE 6
TO 8 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES: A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING
IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SOUTH FLORIDA. APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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