Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

.UPDATE...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 11 PM EST...

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED OTHER THAN TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

NOW CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 2 VERY STRONG, SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS 50 TO 60
MILES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST MOVING SLOWLY EAST TO
EAST NORTHEAST WITHIN A BAND OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL...AND OTHER
SCATTERED HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BAND WAS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AS
THE OVERALL BAND MOVES SLIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS HIGHER
INSTABILITY. LATEST ANALYSIS/GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THESE STORMS
WERE BEING SUSTAINED WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHERE CAPES AS
HIGH AS 3000 J/KG WERE BEING OBSERVED...AND ON THE TAIL END OF THE
LEAD SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER/ATTENDANT ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER...AS MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING LOCAL WRF RUN AND 40KM
RUC SUGGEST THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME AND WILL INDUCE A SURGE OF THE WEAK SURFACE WARM
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MID-LEVEL DRY
PUNCH MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION...MODEL DIAGNOSED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE HIGHEST
IN THIS TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL HELICITIES CONTINUE OVER 100 M2/S2
WITH BACKED SE SURFACE FLOW...HOWEVER INSTABILITY OVER LAND IS
MUCH LESS THAN OVER THE WATER WITH CAPES GENERALLY LIMITED TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG. 00Z MIAMI UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 1100
J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH 0-3KM HELICITIES CLOSE TO 300 M2/S2.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL LIE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ZONE...BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN TORNADO
THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING FIRST FOUR HOURS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF PENINSULA...WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING ONSHORE FROM ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GULF.  THUS...
WILL CARRY PREVAILING VCTS/CB FOR KAPF AND ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS.  THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL INCREASE AFTER
13/04Z FOR EAST COAST...AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND WILL
MAINTAIN VCTS/CB FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BKN VFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH
ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE SUSTAINED
SPEEDS TO 15G25.  EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TOMORROW...AS
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH.  SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL BOTH DIMINISH BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO RE-ISSUE THE SCA FOR BISCAYNE BAY THROUGH THE
NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

UPDATE: STRASSBERG/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008/

..TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 11 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST
WEST OF THE G. LAKES S-SW TO NRN MEX WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
MOVING EAST ARND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. FIRST SIGNIFICANT S/W
ACROSS E-CENTRAL GULF OF MEX ATTM. ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS S/W OVR E
TX. ATTM. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN TIP
OF FL PENINSULA AT THE MOMENT WITH NMRS SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS
SPREADING NORTH. COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM TN SW TO SWRN TX.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...LATEST MDLS SHOW WARM FRONT MOVING N TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 00Z WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE 1ST SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW VERY GOOD UPR LVL
DIV AHEAD OF THE S/W WITH A STG 850MB INFLOW (30 TO 45 KTS) MAINLY
FROM LAKE OKEE NORTHWARD. THIS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT NRN PORTION
OF S. FL (COUNTIES SURROUNDING LAKE OKEE) WILL EXPERIENCE MOST OF
WX AS MOST PARAMETERS COINCIDE OVR THAT AREA TONIGHT. THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE ABSENCE OF A SFC FORCING MECHANISM AS THE
WARM FNT WILL ALREADY BE NORTH OF THE AREA. STILL LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TSTM
ACTIVITY WITH A FEW BECOMING STG.

WEDNESDAY...S/W OVER TX WILL DIG SE PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY BY 18Z. A SQUALL
LINE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT AND MOVING THROUGH S. FL
WED AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS, HOW STRONG THIS SQUALL LINE IS
GOING TO BE WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MDLS SHOW LOW LVL
WINDS VEERING TO SW AHEAD OF THE LINE DISRUPTING THE INFLOW AND
WEAKENING THE LINE. STILL WILL EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO MAKE IT
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH AN UNIDIRECTIONAL SFC TO 700 MB SHEAR WILL
EXPECT BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS (40
TO 50 MPH) AT BEST. GFS INDICATES THIS LINE WILL ACTUALLY SLOW
DOWN WITH A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CD
FNT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF MIA BY 06Z THU WITH DRYING TREND STARTING
QUICKLY AFTER FROPPA.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER FROPA WED
NIGHT...DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER SOUTH TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLD PERIOD.

AVIATION...CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY AROUND 3 TO 5KFT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH BRIEF LOWER CEILINGS IN THE
EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 12 TO 16 KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S, HOWEVER WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE
AND INCREASE IN SPEED IN AND AROUND STORMS.

MARINE...SFC WNDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BECOME S-SW AS THE
SFC LOW/FNT OVER SRN PLAINS DEEPENS. SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER TO NW
BEHIND THE COLD FNT AND BRIEFLY REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KTS WED NIGHT
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO BELOW 15 KTS AFTERWARDS.

FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY THU AFTERNOON
AS DRY AIR FILTER SOUTH BEHIND THE FNT. RH COULD HOVER ARND 35
PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER QUICKLY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  81  56  75 / 90 70 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  81  60  77 / 90 70 30 10
MIAMI            70  82  60  78 / 90 70 30 10
NAPLES           68  77  56  76 / + 70 20 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ650-AMZ651- AMZ670-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
944 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

FLZ066-067-070-130345-
HENDRY FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
944 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST HENDRY COUNTY...

AT 939 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HENDRY CORRECTIONAL I/A/P...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

DEVILS GARDEN...
MONTURA...
ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS SHOWING BROAD ROTATION AND IS DEVELOPING
IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2643 8054 2627 8124 2640 8135 2677 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 236DEG 32KT 2638 8120

BAXTER