Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Miami, FL

060 
WWUS52 KMFL 100544
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
144 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

FLC087-100553-
/O.CAN.KMFL.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-080910T0600Z/
MAINLAND MONROE FL-
143 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED MAINLAND MONROE 
COUNTY.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
COUNTY. RADAR INDICATES WEAK ROTATION WITH SEVERAL OF THESE SHOWERS. 
REMAIN ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL WARNINGS. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER 
SHOULD ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 2609 8147 2584 8131 2583 8136 2585 8138
      2585 8140 2587 8147 2589 8148 2588 8150
      2584 8151 2587 8152 2589 8156 2591 8161
      2590 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 135DEG 27KT 2587 8142

$$

FLC021-100600-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-080910T0600Z/
COLLIER FL-
143 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY...

AT 137 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EVERGLADES CITY...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 31 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CAPE ROMANO AQUATIC PRESERVE BY 155 AM EDT...
PORT OF THE ISLANDS BY 200 AM EDT...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 2609 8147 2584 8131 2583 8136 2585 8138
      2585 8140 2587 8147 2589 8148 2588 8150
      2584 8151 2587 8152 2589 8156 2591 8161
      2590 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 135DEG 27KT 2587 8142

$$

HANDEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
851 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE IKE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN
TIMING THESE BANDS AT THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS...WILL USE
PREVAILING VFR CIGS IN THE FORECAST AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. CIGS
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS IKE MOVES WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL ANTICIPATED...AT LEAST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...IN DEEP/MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME. SE SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH BOTH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND
GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 11/00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008/

DISCUSSION...
HURRICANE IKE IS POISED TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST OF CUBA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WNW TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SEVERAL OUTER BANDS ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN A TRAINING BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS
METRO MIAMI-DADE. TO THE NORTH...MORE HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE DUE
TO LESS CLOUD/RAIN BAND COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND THIS HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. MANY CELLS EXHIBITED MINI-SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS
THIS MORNING...AND WITH CELLULAR CONVECTION AND 0-3KM SRH AROUND
200 M2/S2 PER THE LATEST KAMX VWP...ROTATION AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WINDS AND INSTABILITY DECREASE OVERNIGHT THE
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

THE TRENDS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AS IKE ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY SW OF OUR AREA...AND DEEP- LAYERED FLOW VEERS
A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE SE. SUSTAINED WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DECREASING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE
WIND ADVISORY GOING BUT AM A LITTLE HESITANT TO EXTEND IT AT THIS
TIME GIVEN MODEL TRENDS...THE FACT THAT IKE WILL BE PAST ITS POINT
OF CLOSEST APPROACH...AND THAT WINDS ONLY SPORADICALLY MET
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
LATEST TRENDS AND DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED
OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT MOST BANDS MAY SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST AS STRONGEST WIND FIELDS AND THUS STRONGEST CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS WITH IKES MOVEMENT.

AS IKE PULLS AWAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WIND FIELDS WILL WEAKEN
SOME BUT WE WILL STILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS DEEP-LAYERED SE FLOW IS LEFT BEHIND IN BETWEEN IKE
AND A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE AND
WILL KEEP CLIMO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST...THOUGH WE SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE AS WE GET OUT OF IKES ENVIRONMENT. BY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
SE CONUS COAST. DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON
ITS SOUTH SIDE WITH POPS LOWERING AND A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME TAKING SHAPE.

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AS
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-35KTS ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED BUT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS LIKELY ALL WATERS ESPECIALLY IN RAIN
AND SQUALLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER 20 KNOTS ALL OTHER WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH AN SCA IN PLACE. BASED ON A LATE MORNING SHIP
REPORT SEAS OF 14-17FT ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
GULF STREAM VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ATLANTIC WATERS DECREASING TO 8-10FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WINDS MAY REMAIN NEAR SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  88  80  88 / 50 60 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  88  81  88 / 50 60 40 50
MIAMI            81  87  80  89 / 50 60 40 50
NAPLES           75  91  77  92 / 60 60 40 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ610-AMZ630- AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-
     GMZ657-GMZ676.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1133 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-101000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1133 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALL LOCAL GULF WATERS...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

HURRICANE IKE, JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF CUBA, WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE LATEST IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM HURRICANE IKE, PLEASE REFER TO THE HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THIS WEEK.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR
GREATER, AND ANY CLOUD SIGNATURES SUGGESTING ROTATION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.