Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
344 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING...AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND AND DID NOT
MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AT 330 PM CDT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL WERE OCCURRING FROM NEAR BOLIVAR TO SAVANNAH TN WHERE
MOISTURE WAS CONVERGING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN RAIN COOLED AIR NEAR PARIS TN TO LOWER 90S AT MANY
LOCATIONS SUCH AS MEMPHIS...JONESBORO AR...AND TUNICA MS.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER NE AR.

THROUGH 10 PM CDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
NEAR THE LINE MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. UNTIL THEN...AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. A FEW ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A STORM OR
TWO OF THESE MAY BE STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED.

AFTER 10 PM CDT...THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL
PERHAPS AFTER 4 AM CDT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE/SHORT
WAVE AND LIKELY MCS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. KEPT THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CLOSER TO THE COLD
FRONT AND BEST AREA OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. BELIEVE THE BULK OF
THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AFTER 7 AM CDT TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...THINK MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO KEPT HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE AREA...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE AIR WILL AGAIN BE VERY UNSTABLE
WITH SBCAPES AROUND OR ABOVE 2500 J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN HAZARD AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL...THOUGH HAIL SIZE
SHOULD REMAIN SMALL WITH VERY WARM ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 14000 FT MSL. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL BE AFFECTED MORE BY THE WET WEATHER DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE AREAS SOUTH WILL GET WET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THINK HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE BIGGER CONCERN ON TUESDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES. EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR LEXINGTON TN...SO
WITH THE SAME JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...THINK ISOLATED AREAS COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT THINK FLOODING WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AREA SHOULD FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. STILL KEPT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT REALLY THINK
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...DID NOT ALTER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH. APPEARS GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN MAY
OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  87  71  84 /  30  70  40  40
MKL  70  84  67  81 /  40  70  40  40
JBR  71  86  69  81 /  50  70  40  30
TUP  71  86  69  85 /  20  60  30  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

MBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
322 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-272230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
322 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR AND CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
ROUGHLY WITHIN 25 MILES OF A BOLIVAR TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE
THROUGH 7 PM CDT...INCLUDING THE SELMER...LEXINGTON...PARSONS...IUKA...
AND BOONEVILLE AREAS.

A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH...MAINLY BEFORE 10 PM CDT PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH ON TUESDAY. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH IN SOME LOCATIONS. FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT IN
A FEW AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY LOCALLY BE REQUIRED THROUGH 10 PM CDT
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED ON TUESDAY AS WELL.

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEDON                   35.46N 88.87W
05/26/2008                   MADISON            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 18 NEAR MEDON

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE MEDON             35.49N 88.78W
05/26/2008                   MADISON            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON PARKBURG LANE

&&

TAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

TNZ055-090>092-262100-
DECATUR TN-HARDEMAN TN-HARDIN TN-MCNAIRY TN-
259 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  EAST CENTRAL HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40
TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF DECATURVILLE TO 13
MILES WEST OF SELMER AT 259 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DECATUR...HARDEMAN...HARDIN AND MCNAIRY COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SAVANNAH AND SELMER...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400
PM CDT.

KNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEDON                   35.46N 88.87W
05/26/2008                   MADISON            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 18 NEAR MEDON

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE MEDON             35.49N 88.78W
05/26/2008                   MADISON            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON PARKBURG LANE

0410 PM     HAIL             3 N RAMER               35.11N 88.62W
05/26/2008  E0.88 INCH       MCNAIRY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE FULTON            34.30N 88.38W
05/26/2008                   ITAWAMBA           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AT JOHN RANKIN HWY AND SCENIC HILLS ROAD

0510 PM     HAIL             5 N WEINER              35.69N 90.90W
05/26/2008  E0.75 INCH       POINSETT           AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL ON HWY 49 5N OF WEINER

&&

TAB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>