Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
949 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.UPDATE...

MUGGY NIGHT OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE LINE CONTINUES TO
HOLD STEADY IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH ATTM. ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE LINE
TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE TO BUMP LOWS UP SLIGHTLY DUE CLOUD
COVER FROM STORMS AND POSSIBLE MENTION FOG IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
DUE TO RAINFALL. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AND
IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING SO
HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ENTER
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE HIGHER
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AND
KEEPS THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY SO THERE
MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
655 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-270200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
655 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DRESDEN TENNESSEE TO WYNNE
ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

TAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
933 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ARZ017-260300-
LAWRENCE AR-
933 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STRAWBERRY AT 933 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BLACK ROCK...
HOXIE AND WALNUT RIDGE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY..

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.