River Flood Warning 48, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A LINE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST TENNESSEE
THROUGH THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS
LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE IS MARGINAL WITH
SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WHILE WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG WITH
850 MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS AND 500 MB WINDS OF 60 KTS. EXPECT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS MORNING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER 1.50 INCHES
COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT CAUSED BY THE APPROACH OF A DECENT 500
MB SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 3 INCHES AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SAT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ONLY
SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A RELATIVELY QUIET...DRY PERIOD
IN AN OTHERWISE BUSY WEATHER PATTERN. PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES. BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE
MOVED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE 70S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY TROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN. A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE DEPICTING QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE
THREAT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
MAJOR UPPER LEVEL TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...INTERACTING WITH THIS
FRONT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  66  45  66  49 / 100  40  10   0
MKL  65  42  64  43 / 100  40  10   0
JBR  60  41  65  44 /  80  20  10   0
TUP  70  49  66  47 / 100  80  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

SJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-041015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
335 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE...WITH BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCHES THAT HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR PARTS
OF THE MID SOUTH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH
ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO HUNTINGDON TENNESSEE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING AND NEW RIVER FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MEMPHIS.