Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Warnings in 2008

Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Memphis, TN

April 4, 2008Dunklin County, Pemiscot County, Missouri; Mississippi County, Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this flash flood warning at Apr 4, 2008, 12:48 AM CDT for Dunklin County, Pemiscot County, Missouri; Mississippi County, Arkansas. It was in force for 4 hr. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 4, 2008, 12:48 AM CDT (05:48 UTC)
Expired: Apr 4, 2008, 4:45 AM CDT
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Mississippi County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 4, 1:00 AM CDT	FLASH FLOOD	3 Wnw Campbell, MO	ROUTE DD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
Apr 4, 3:00 AM CDT	FLASH FLOOD	Luxora, AR	HIGHWAY 120 IN LUXORA FLOODED.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 12 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 300 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 17 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -154 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 734 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 304 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 378 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KMEG 040549
FFWMEG
ARC093-MOC069-155-040945-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.W.0038.080404T0548Z-080404T0945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1248 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 445 AM CDT

* AT 1248 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
  FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 
  3 INCHES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF   
  HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOLTON...
  WARDELL...MALDEN...KENNETT...HOLCOMB...HAYTI HEIGHTS...HAYTI...
  GLENNONVILLE...DEERING...CLARKTON...CARUTHERSVILLE AND CAMPBELL.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3662 8997 3660 9019 3630 9005 3600 9038
      3599 9028 3545 9029 3544 9022 3548 9009
      3541 9005 3554 9004 3565 8984 3573 8996
      3589 8964 3599 8973 3617 8959 3625 8971
      3626 8956 3635 8962 3636 8954 3642 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 180DEG 0KT 3614 8992

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 040937
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
437 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ARC093-MOC069-155-040947-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-080404T0945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MISSISSIPPI AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-
437 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 AM CDT FOR PEMISCOT...
DUNKLIN AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED. THUS 
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3662 8997 3660 9019 3630 9005 3600 9038
      3599 9028 3545 9029 3544 9022 3548 9009
      3541 9005 3554 9004 3565 8984 3573 8996
      3589 8964 3599 8973 3617 8959 3625 8971
      3626 8956 3635 8962 3636 8954 3642 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0937Z 180DEG 0KT 3614 8992

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Apr 3, 6:59 PM CDT, 5 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 3, 6:59 PM CDT, 5 hours 49 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ROUGHLY FROM ASHLAND TO OXFORD TO COFFEEVILLE. HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WHOLE REGION IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH. HOWEVER SURFACE BASED LI/S AROUND -3 TO -5...SBCAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG WERE NOTED OVER N MS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STILL
LACKING IN THESE AREAS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A WARM FRONT
FROM JUST NORTH OF TUPELO BACK THROUGH OXFORD AND SOUTH OF PINE
BLUFF ARKANSAS THEN BACK TO A LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTH IN THE
WARM SECTOR...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE 70S...AND
EVEN A FEW AREAS REPORTING TEMPERATURES UP TO 80 DEGREES AS FAR
NORTH AS GREENWOOD MS. MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND AN 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET RESIDES. FURTHER EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS...CONVECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT IN THE 800-750 MB
LAYER. BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS/LAPS ANALYSIS...THINK
THE RUC/GFS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION THAN THE
NAM. AT THIS POINT...THINK A MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE
PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE
LARGER THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES AND K-INDICIES BETWEEN
35 TO 37. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT AND AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING GOOD.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED MOSTLY SOUTH OF
I-40 ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE AROUND 1400 J/KG...WITH LI/S
AROUND -4. ONCE AGAIN THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY WILL COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUED POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE MID SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY.

LONG RANGE...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THE FIRST ONE WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AND THE SECOND ONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  62  65  47  66 / 100 100  50  10
MKL  60  64  44  64 / 100 100  60  10
JBR  56  61  43  65 / 100  80  30  10
TUP  62  70  50  65 /  50 100  80  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

AC

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 3, 3:35 PM CDT, 9 hours 13 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-041015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
335 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE...WITH BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCHES THAT HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR PARTS
OF THE MID SOUTH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH
ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO HUNTINGDON TENNESSEE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING AND NEW RIVER FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MEMPHIS.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 3, 11:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POWHATAN                36.08N 91.12W
04/03/2008                   LAWRENCE           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 LARGE TREES DOWN

&&

MRM

Local storm report, Apr 4, 12:00 AM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1200 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     HAIL             HOLCOMB                 36.40N 90.02W
04/03/2008  M0.75 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF HOLCOMB

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POWHATAN                36.08N 91.12W
04/03/2008                   LAWRENCE           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 LARGE TREES DOWN

&&

MRM

Local storm report, Apr 4, 12:18 AM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1218 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E WARDELL             36.35N 89.80W
04/03/2008  E60.00 MPH       PEMISCOT           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEMI TRACTOR TRAILER FLIPPED OVER ON EXIT RAMP 27 TO
            WARDELL OFF INTERSTATE 55.

1145 PM     HAIL             HOLCOMB                 36.40N 90.02W
04/03/2008  M0.75 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF HOLCOMB

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POWHATAN                36.08N 91.12W
04/03/2008                   LAWRENCE           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 LARGE TREES DOWN

&&

MRM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 3, 10:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dunklin	64 min
Apr 3, 11:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dunklin, Pemiscot	48 min
Apr 3, 10:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence, Randolph	53 min
Apr 3, 11:11 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph	4 hr
Apr 4, 12:13 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Craighead, Lawrence, Poinsett	4 hr
Apr 4, 12:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, Poinsett	64 min
Apr 4, 1:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Cross, Mississippi, Poinsett	38 min
Apr 4, 2:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Lee, St. Francis	44 min
Apr 4, 2:51 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden	54 min
Apr 4, 10:11 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Lee, Phillips, St. Francis	6 hr
Apr 4, 10:22 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Phillips	6 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2008 Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2008 Every flash flood warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.