Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Memphis, TN

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
446 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS A POTENT AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND TURN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.

EXPECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND
MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT...THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH AS WELL AND
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE AIDED TONIGHT
BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NOSE
OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WHICH WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF 40-50KTS. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE
MID SOUTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...PLACING MUCH OF THE REGION IN A BROADENING WARM AND
MOIST SECTOR.

ON THURSDAY...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN TO A STRONG 990 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE MID SOUTH
WILL BE COMPLETELY INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY...WITH A VERY
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR EXCEED 80 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS
SURGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE REGION SHOULD BE CAPPED BY
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO MID AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT ANY LOW
CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MIX OUT SOME...ALLOWING BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO COMMENCE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A CONDITIONALLY MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO DEVELOP WITH SBCAPES RANGING FROM 1500-2500J/KG AND
LI/S FROM -3C TO -6C BY MID AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS AIRMASS SHOULD
REMAIN CAPPED OFF THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A 130KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK PUNCHING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A POWERFUL 80-100KT MID LEVEL
JET WILL SURGE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ABOVE A STRONG 75KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL
SET UP OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL GENERATE TREMENDOUS LOW AND
MID LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE REGION WITH 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
60-80KTS AND 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 350-450M2/S2. THIS
SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES ALONG WITH INTENSE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

AS THE POWERFUL MID LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADS THE UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN...APPRECIABLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...AND
THE CAPPING INVERSION TO BEGIN TO LIFT AND MIX OUT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...EXPECT STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
WITH SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. A FEW
LONG- TRACKED SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES. MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH IN NOW UNDER A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS ANTICIPATED.

ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY RACE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SQUALL-LINE LATER THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL-LINE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO
BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY WITH FLASH
FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUR REGION BY FRIDAY WITH DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. COLD CORE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS SKIES CLEAR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FROST DURING MONDAY AND MAYBE EVEN TUESDAY MORNINGS. DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  71  65  81  65 /  60  30  60 100
MKL  69  63  80  65 /  60  30  30 100
JBR  63  62  77  59 /  70  60  90 100
TUP  75  62  81  68 /  20  10  20  90

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR ALCORN-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-
     PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR DECATUR-HARDIN-MCNAIRY.

&&

JLH

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