Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 091230
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
728 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

MSC143-091345-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0044.000000T0000Z-080409T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TUNICA MS-
728 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT FOR
TUNICA COUNTY...

AT 728 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF 
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN 
ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TUNICA...
ROBINSONVILLE...PRICHARD AND NORTH TUNICA.

.EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3456 9054 3462 9059 3470 9056 3464 9055
      3469 9046 3472 9054 3481 9052 3477 9049
      3474 9052 3472 9050 3474 9046 3484 9046
      3486 9021 3458 9022 3450 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1228Z 180DEG 0KT 3463 9081

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
446 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...THE FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS A POTENT AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND TURN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.

EXPECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND
MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THESE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT...THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH AS WELL AND
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE AIDED TONIGHT
BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NOSE
OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WHICH WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF 40-50KTS. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE
MID SOUTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...PLACING MUCH OF THE REGION IN A BROADENING WARM AND
MOIST SECTOR.

ON THURSDAY...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN TO A STRONG 990 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE MID SOUTH
WILL BE COMPLETELY INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY...WITH A VERY
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR EXCEED 80 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS
SURGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE REGION SHOULD BE CAPPED BY
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO MID AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT ANY LOW
CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MIX OUT SOME...ALLOWING BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO COMMENCE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A CONDITIONALLY MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO DEVELOP WITH SBCAPES RANGING FROM 1500-2500J/KG AND
LI/S FROM -3C TO -6C BY MID AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS AIRMASS SHOULD
REMAIN CAPPED OFF THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A 130KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK PUNCHING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A POWERFUL 80-100KT MID LEVEL
JET WILL SURGE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ABOVE A STRONG 75KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL
SET UP OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL GENERATE TREMENDOUS LOW AND
MID LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE REGION WITH 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
60-80KTS AND 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 350-450M2/S2. THIS
SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES ALONG WITH INTENSE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

AS THE POWERFUL MID LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADS THE UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN...APPRECIABLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...AND
THE CAPPING INVERSION TO BEGIN TO LIFT AND MIX OUT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...EXPECT STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
WITH SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. A FEW
LONG- TRACKED SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES. MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH IN NOW UNDER A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS ANTICIPATED.

ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY RACE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SQUALL-LINE LATER THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL-LINE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO
BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY WITH FLASH
FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUR REGION BY FRIDAY WITH DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. COLD CORE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS SKIES CLEAR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FROST DURING MONDAY AND MAYBE EVEN TUESDAY MORNINGS. DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  71  65  81  65 /  60  30  60 100
MKL  69  63  80  65 /  60  30  30 100
JBR  63  62  77  59 /  70  60  90 100
TUP  75  62  81  68 /  20  10  20  90

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
     LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR ALCORN-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-
     PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR DECATUR-HARDIN-MCNAIRY.

&&

JLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
519 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-101230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
519 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI TO JACKSON
TENNESSEE. ANY STRONG STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY IMPACT TENDER VEGETATION THAT IS
LEFT UNPROTECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

JLH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
541 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-091245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVILLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
541 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG LIFT AND A HIGHLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM INTO AN INTENSE SQUALL-LINE AND
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES TO MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. THE GROUND OVER
MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH REMAINS SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOOD
SITUATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MID SOUTH
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

PERSONS LIVING IN THE MID SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN UPDATED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK. PLEASE REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PROCEDURES
AND PREPARE NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

JLH