Flash Flood Warning 145, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 260000
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
701 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

MSC033-TNC047-157-260011-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0144.000000T0000Z-080826T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DESOTO MS-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-
701 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN
FAYETTE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED OR
EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3504 9020 3513 9016 3514 9007 3523 9007
      3530 9016 3542 9005 3538 8964 3540 8920
      3521 8950 3501 8964 3499 8972 3478 8972
      3478 8990 3471 9002 3477 9013 3473 9020
      3486 9020 3487 9030 3494 9024 3502 9030

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR TO GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT. THINK THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE BEST ON TRACK AS FAR AS HANDLING DEEP
MOISTURE AND THE DEPARTURE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...SO
LEANED TOWARDS THESE MODELS.

MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO LOWER/REMOVE
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR A QUICKER
FAY DEPARTURE AND TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AT 4 PM CDT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...A BAND OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHED FROM NEAR
CLARKSDALE MS TO PARSONS TN...MOVING WEST. DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE 70S ACROSS RAIN COOLED NE MS TO THE MID 80S NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS NEAR MERIDIAN
MS...SLOWLY MOVING NE.

THROUGH 8 PM CDT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
WEST AND AFFECT AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE 40 INCLUDING MEMPHIS AND
JACKSON TN WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCAL
FLASH FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. SEVERE DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED. AREAS NORTH OF A WYNNE AR
TO PARIS TN WILL REMAIN DRY.

REST OF TONIGHT...MOST RAIN WILL DIMINISH AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CLOSER TO FAY. THINK CONTRACTION OF FAY MAY
ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER WHICH WILL LIKELY
TRACK INTO NE MS BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1
TO 2 INCHES AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN NE MS...BUT DID NOT ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS NOT CERTAIN THAT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WILL
BE MET. KEPT HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CLOSER
TO FAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH. WITH WINDS STAYING UP AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...PREFERRED THE WARMER MODEL
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...FAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NE MS INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA ON THE BACK SIDE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS NE MS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
THINK RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE AWAY TO SOME AFTERNOON
SUN AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S...WARMEST OVER NE AR AND MO
BOOTHEEL AND COOLER FARTHER EAST NEAR FAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...NOW APPEARS DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MAINLY PREVAIL WITH FAY MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. KEPT SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE TN RIVER AND NE MS WHERE MOISTURE WILL
BE DEEPEST. DENSE FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LABOR DAY...MAINLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGHS WILL
PROBABLY GET INTO THE 90S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER BUILDS
IN FROM NORTHWEST. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MAY MOVE THROUGH...BUT NOT CONFIDENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  86  70  92 /  60  30  10  10
MKL  70  84  65  88 /  70  50  20  10
JBR  69  88  66  93 /  20  10  10  10
TUP  71  82  68  90 /  90  80  20  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

MBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-262245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
339 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...FLASH FLOODING...AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FORREST
CITY ARKANSAS TO HUNTINGDON TENNESSEE LINE THROUGH 8 PM CDT.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AFTER 8 PM CDT NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A HOUSTON TO CORINTH LINE. THIS MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ON TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MBS