Flash Flood Warning 141, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 252254
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
554 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

TNC023-077-252330-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0141.000000T0000Z-080825T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENDERSON TN-CHESTER TN-
554 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN CHESTER AND SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTIES...

AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MIFFLIN...
LEXINGTON AND DARDEN.

.ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3555 8822 3554 8824 3542 8825 3542 8879
      3546 8875 3551 8866 3557 8860 3559 8860
      3577 8818

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1107 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

.UPDATE...

WILL INCREASE TODAY/S TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MAKE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES AND OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY. CLOSELY MONITORING FOR THE LOW POTENTIAL
OF MINI-SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES EAST OF A LEXINGTON TN
TO HOUSTON MS LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 11 AM CDT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 73 AND
83 DEGREES. SKIES WERE VARIABLE OVER THE AREA AND NORTHEAST WINDS
WERE AROUND 10 MPH. FAY WAS NEAR STATIONARY BETWEEN MERIDIAN AND
JACKSON MS. HEAVY RAIN WAS OCCURRING OVER ALABAMA ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF FAY.

REST OF TODAY...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...PARTICULARLY OVER NE MS...CAN BE EXPECTED.
THINK NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS BY 2 PM CDT
AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWEST AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE REACHED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE WEST AND LIKELY AFFECT THE MEMPHIS...TUNICA MS...AND JACKSON
TN AREAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF
IN DURATION...LESS THAN ONE HOUR IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDER WILL
BE LIMITED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
ICE IN CLOUDS.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES OVER
NE MS AND NEAR THE TN RIVER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIFTED INDICES -3 TO -5 AND 0-3 KM HELICITIES AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE 150 M2/S2 ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF FAY. CONFIDENCE
THAT TORNADOES DEVELOP REMAINS LOW. APPEARS THE BETTER TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL STAY EAST OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON OVER
ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE...LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE BETTER. AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE TORNADO MENTION OUT OF
HWO AS CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY AND UPDATE PRODUCTS AS NECESSARY.

AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL MAINLY STAY DRY AS SOME LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS INTO THESE AREAS FROM THE NORTHEAST.

WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF MORNING SUN NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 80S.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...THE REMNANTS OF FAY ARE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE IMPACTING THE MID SOUTH. THE OUTERMOST BAND
IS ROTATING ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS SKIRTING PARTS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.

TODAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ERRATIC IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF FAY. THE 00Z GFS IS BACK TO A MORE AGGRESSIVE
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH SLOWER.
SEVERAL OF THE ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AS WELL. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM FOR THIS FORECAST.
FOR TODAY EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MEANDER AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND BE LOCATED AROUND MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI BY THE END
OF THE DAY. RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WRAP AROUND
THE SYSTEM INTO THE MID SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF THE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE
SYSTEM. COOLEST HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH WARMER...THOUGH STILL
BELOW NORMAL READINGS...TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ROUGHLY
ALONG THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE. IF THIS TRACK IS
ACCURATE THEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE MID SOUTH WITH A LESSER
THREAT ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ONCE AGAIN NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK
NORTH ALONG THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER ON TUESDAY AND INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

EXTENDED...BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION AS AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  87  72  85  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKL  87  70  83  68 /  70  40  40  30
JBR  86  69  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
TUP  83  70  83  70 / 100  60  60  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

MBS/SJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-261100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
400 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY
AND RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
PARTS OF MID SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND PONDING OF WATER COULD OCCUR IN LOW LYING
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE MID SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING COULD OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM