Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 182147
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
447 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

TXC377-190145-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-080919T0145Z/
/00000.3.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PRESIDIO-
447 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING ON THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 
845 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN PRESIDIO COUNTY...

AT 434 PM CDT...EXTREMELY HIGH FLOWS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE CONTINUE 
AS A RESULT OF RELEASES OUT OF LUIS LEON RESERVOIR.  THESE RELEASES 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP RIVER 
LEVELS ELEVATED.   DUE TO THE HIGH VOLUME OF WATER PASSING THROUGH 
THE LEVEE SYSTEM...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LEVEE FAILURE WITHOUT 
WARNING.  INDIVIDUALS IN THE PRESIDIO AND REDFORD AREAS...NEED TO 
CONTINUE MONITORING RIVER CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIAL FAILURE AND BE 
PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE PRESIDIO...REDFORD...AND FM 170 THROUGH 
THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 2940 10418 2943 10419 2944 10421 2950 10425
      2952 10436 2957 10442 2967 10431 2948 10405
      2938 10415

$$


13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
NW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACRS CWFA WITH TROF AXIS POSITIONED E.
NW MID LEVEL FLOW SEEMS PRETTY DRY AND WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH SFC DWPNTS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL AGAIN BE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
DIURNAL RANGES NEARING 25 DEGREES. INTO FRI NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND GFS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE CONVERGENT SE FLOW
INTO E-NE NM FOR SHRA/TSRA. MODEL QPF/S KEEP PRECIP N-NW OF CWFA
BUT 7H-5H LR/S STILL NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS WITH LIMITED SFC MSTR KEEPS
85H BASED LI/S POSITIVE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FCST. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN SOME MCLOUDY CONDITIONS THRU MIDNIGHT ACRS
NW. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EDGE EWD SAT WHICH WOULD TEND CUT
OFF PRECIP FROM GENERATION SOURCE OF NM MTNS AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRY FCST. NAM 85H TEMPS NEAR 22C OVER MAF SAT WHICH YIELDS
TEMPS LOWER TO UPPER 80S FRI/SAT. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD SUN THUS MAINTAINING DRY FCST AND 5H HGHTS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WILL TREND TEMPS UP SOME. 5H RIDGE AXIS MOVES E SUN WHICH
WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO HAVE MORE OF A WLY COMPONENT WHICH
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENHANCE LEE TROF SOME AND ASSOCD 85H THERMAL
RIDGE. THESE FEATURES LEE TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE MORE
PROMINENT MON AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO INTER MTN W SLOWLY
INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW ACRS SE NM/W TX. GFS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF BUT IN GENERAL TUE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MON BUT WARMER WITH MORE WIND. ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THRU W TX/SE NM LATE WED OR THUR AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
TROF MOVES E. PRE/POST FRONTAL PRECIP ISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING DEGREE OF MSTR RETURN AND DEPTH OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THRU BIG BEND. AS OF LATE MORNING THE STAGE AT PRESIDIO
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS JUST BELOW 28 FT. LEVELS CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO BREACHES ON THE LEVEE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE CONCHOS. ALSO IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT THE LEVEE
HAS BEEN BREACHED SE OF PRESIDIO AND OTHER SECTIONS ARE SHOWING
WEAKNESS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              55  83  58  84  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                52  85  55  87  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  57  85  60  87  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  85  60  87  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  80  59  78  /   0  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   52  86  56  86  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   42  80  47  80  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  84  58  86  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  56  86  59  86  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    54  88  59  89  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
127 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-191830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
127 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008 /1227 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER CONTINUES FROM PRESIDIO TO
JOHNSON RANCH DUE TO WATER RELEASES FROM THE LUIS LEON RESERVOIR
IN NORTHERN MEXICO. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE RECORD FLOOD STAGE...WITH LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHWAY
170 REMAINS CLOSED TO THROUGH TRAFFIC AND THERE ARE LIKELY OTHER
COUNTY ROADS THAT ARE IMPASSABLE AS WELL. ALL TRAVELING IN THE
AREA ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID ALL LOCATIONS
WHERE WATER MAY BE OVER THE ROADWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND