Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
109 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008/

DISCUSSION...
STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILTED 5H TROF IS EVIDENT IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
FROM THE GREAT BASIN SEWD INTO THE NM/W TX. HOWEVER 7H-5H
INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO CNTRL NM AND EXTENDING W-NW AND WITH
SFC DWPNTS IN THE 40S SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ABSENT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CWFA. FARTHER SW INTO RIO GRANDE/BIG BEND REGION WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MINOR SHRTWV TROF BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
THERE SO WILL TEND TOWARD A DRY FCST WITH ONLY -SHRA. OVERNIGHT
DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACRS PB SETTING UP ANOTHER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND WIL AGAIN SIDE WITH THE MAVMOS...WHICH
HAS BEEN THE BETTER OF THE 3 THE LAST 2 NIGHTS. 7H-5H INSTABILITY
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER THUR WITH NW MID LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD
BE ENUF SE WIND AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR STORMS ACRS NE NM
BUT DON/T EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE IT INTO SE NM. NAM
ADVERTISES 7H-5H LR/S TO STEEPEN TO 7 C/KM AS FAR SE AS PB WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF SE NM/NW PB FOR NOW
THOUGH...BUT ISOLD/SLGHT CHC POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED THERE
FRI EVENING. 85H TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH 20-21C BY FRI AND
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. 5H FETCH WILL SHORTEN SAT AND SEEMS
THAT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRTWV TROF/S WITHIN FLOW WILL LESSENED AS
85H TEMPS NEAR 22C SO TEMPS STEADY OR JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE SAT.
MID LEVEL WINDS BACK INTO SUN/MON AS TROF MOVES THRU ROCKY MTNS.
SFC DWPNTS REMAIN IN THE 40S ACRS SE NM TO 50S ACRS PB AND WITH
SHRTWV TROF/S ABSENT WILL CONTINUE DRY FCST. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED ACRS THE INTER MTN W TUE/WED AND EXPECT THAT LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO AMPLIFY FURTHER...A LITTLE
MORE THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW.

HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THRU BIG BEND. AS OF LATE MORNING THE STAGE AT PRESIDIO
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS NEAR 27.8 FT AND ROSE AS HIGH AS 28.21 FT
AROUND MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT...WHICH IS THE NEW RECORD AT THE
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE. LEVELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE DUE TO YESTERDAY/S BREECH ON THE LEVEE IN MEXICO ALONG THE
CONCHOS AND WATER IS NEARING/AT THE TOP OF THE LEVEE DOWNSTREAM OF
PRESIDIO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.

&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
131 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
131 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008 /1231 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM PRESIDIO
TO JOHNSON RANCH DUE TO WATER RELEASES FROM THE LUIS LEON
RESERVOIR IN MEXICO. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER FROM PRESIDIO
AND DOWNSTREAM ARE REACHING MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS AND RIVER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHWAY 170
REMAINS CLOSED TO THROUGH TRAFFIC AND THERE MAY BE COUNTY ROADS
THAT ARE IMPASSABLE AS WELL. USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING IN THIS
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND