Tornado Warning 26, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD SETTING UP. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO...WITH THE
WARM BOUNDARY MOVING UP THROUGH ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL SEND ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION...AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SURFACE AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE
NEARLY PARALLEL...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
VERY SLOWLY. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE UP IN THE
MEAN FLOW AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT AS MUCH AS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A MURFREESBORO TO LITTLE ROCK
TO NEWPORT LINE...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS SOUTH OF
THAT LINE. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN OR WESTERN ARKANSAS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING SEVEN INCHES. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

GREATEST HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS FROM 6AM-6PM TUESDAY...AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF FROM
NOON-MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SOME STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH MAXIMUM INSULATION DURING THE DAY...SURFACE-BASED
STORMS WOULD BE HARD TO COME BY...WITH ELEVATED HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...FOR ANY SURFACE-BASED
STORM THAT DEVELOPS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED. ANY STRONG STORMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ON THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TAKE OVER.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN US. THIS WILL
AFFECT THE FA BY SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TEMPORARILY FILTER IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD TO
SET UP FOR THE NEXT EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM...BUT THEY WILL TURN QUICKLY TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  64  46  54 /  90 100 100  60
CAMDEN AR         61  70  47  61 /  70 100 100  50
HARRISON AR       55  58  41  50 / 100 100 100  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  69  48  58 /  90 100 100  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  68  49  59 /  90 100 100  60
MONTICELLO AR     59  70  51  61 /  50 100 100  60
MOUNT IDA AR      60  67  46  57 /  90 100 100  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  65  43  51 / 100 100 100  60
NEWPORT AR        58  66  46  55 /  90 100 100  70
PINE BLUFF AR     60  69  51  60 /  70 100 100  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   57  66  45  55 /  90 100 100  50
SEARCY AR         58  67  46  57 /  90 100 100  60
STUTTGART AR      59  68  51  58 /  80 100 100  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...222

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
715 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
715 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. DUE TO STRONG
WINDS ALOFT...WINDS WILL CHANGE DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE ANY ROTATION THAT DEVELOPS IN A STORM. ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL.

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
WEST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE STATE. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY...WITH EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...FLOODING IS ALSO OF CONCERN...AS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. RIVER FLOODING IS
ALSO A CONCERN...AS THE GROUND REMAIN SATURATED.

EVERYONE IS URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IN PARTICULAR...
PERSONS SHOULD REVIEW SAFETY RULES FOR FLASH FLOODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
806 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             1 ESE VANDERVOORT       34.37N 94.35W
03/17/2008  E0.75 INCH       POLK               AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

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