Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1256 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM BETWEEN MOUNTAIN HOME AND
BATESVILLE...STRETCHING BACK TO BETWEEN MENA AND POTEAU OK. FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
APPROACHING FOUR TO FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. SEVERE
WEATHER ALSO A THREAT...MOSTLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

HAVE UPDATED TO REVISE TEMPERATURE FORECAST UPWARD IN MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...AND HAVE ALSO UPPED WINDS AND ISSUED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

AVIATION...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TOINIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTH WINDS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CEILINGS AT TIMES WILL BE BELOW 500 FT WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE RAIN SHOULD END IN MOST AREAS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW...LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO BRING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM...RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY...WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT AREA WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL ACT
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE HEAVY RAIN. A SECONDARY OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT LATER TODAY TO INCREASE
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL EVEN MORE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER FAR SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

THE GREATEST CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE FLOODING. UPWARDS OF FOUR TO
SIX INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
EXITS THE REGION. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AS THE GROUND
REMAINS SATURATED AND THE WATER RUNS OFF.

EVERYONE IS URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IN PARTICULAR...
PERSONS SHOULD REVIEW SAFETY RULES FOR FLASH FLOODS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WELL EAST
OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PART OF THE
STORM WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN ARKNASAS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BE LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS THE STORM MOVES OUT.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY
WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
NATURAL STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1036 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARSHALL                35.91N 92.64W
03/18/2008                   SEARCY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER WAS REPORTED TO BE COVERING ROADS IN MARSHALL.

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW MARSHALL           35.96N 92.70W
03/18/2008                   SEARCY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 65 WAS REPORTED TO BE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AT
            BEAR CREEK.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1105 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW MARSHALL           35.93N 92.66W
03/18/2008  U0.00 INCH       SEARCY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DUE TO WET GROUND...LARGE ROCKS FELL OFF A BLUFF ONTO
            HIGHWAY 65.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1159 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNTAIN HOME           36.34N 92.38W
03/18/2008                   BAXTER             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 201S BETWEEN SHADY GROVE AND ARKANA WAS REPORTED
            TO BE FLOODED. TUCKER CEMETERY TOAD HAS BEEN BARRICATED.
            THIS REPORT WAS RELAYED BY RADIO STATION KTLO.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1202 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNTAIN HOME           36.34N 92.38W
03/18/2008                   BAXTER             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 201S BETWEEN SHADY GROVE AND ARKANA WAS REPORTED
            TO BE FLOODED. TUCKER CEMETERY ROAD HAS BEEN BARRICATED.
            THIS REPORT WAS RELAYED BY RADIO STATION KTLO.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
107 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S CAULKSVILLE         35.29N 93.87W
03/18/2008                   LOGAN              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOMES WERE REPORTED DAMAGED. TREES AND POWER LINES WERE
            REPORTED DOWN. DAMAGE MAY BE FROM A POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

55

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