Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
333 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT TODAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BAY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
MONDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WITH POSSIBLE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
/MCS/ RUMBLING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT WAS
PUSHING THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN. THE MCS WAS BEING PARTIALLY FUELED
BY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JETS. CLOSER TO HOME ACROSS LWX-
LAND...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS CONTINUING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA. AT 2 AM...DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST AREAS
WERE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS THAT WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY.

AT 2 AM...THE MCS WAS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENED MCS...OR ITS
BOUNDARIES...WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM...INCLUDING THE LWX CWA. OTHER
TRIGGERS WILL INCLUDE A LEE TROUGH WHICH A COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO EAST OF THE MTNS...OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
/RIVER AND BAY BREEZES/ ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET. THESE
TRIGGERS COMBINED WITH RICH MOISTURE...HIGH INSTABILITY AND
INCREASED SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING...AND HAVE SOME BACKING
FROM THE SREFS AND LOCALLY RUN LWX MODELS. WILL FIRST CONTEND WITH
REMNANT SHRA/TSRA /SHOULD BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS/ ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA BY 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
THEN ACROSS THE BAY BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. THE INITIATION IS A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE EVENTS.

LOOKING AT SOME CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...THE GFS FORECASTS MORE CAPE
THAN THE NAM. EAST OF THE MTNS...THE GFS INDICATES A BULLS EYE OF
2.5-3.5K J/KG AT 18Z. THATS A LOT OF CAPE BUT EVEN IF THE NAM/S
1-2K J/KG IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THAT/LL BE JUST PLENTY TO FUEL
THUNDERSTORMS IN A 65 TO 70 DEG F DEWPOINT ENVIRONMENT. BELIEVE THE
21Z SREF PROBS ARE A GOOD COMPROMISE. COMBINE THIS WITH THEIR
EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROBS...AND THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE MTNS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE BALTIMORE
WASHINGTON I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE CAPE AND SHEAR CAN BE
OPTIMIZED TO RESULT IN THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD RESULT.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH MODELS INDICATING GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELDS...AM CONCERNED WITH RIVER/BAY BREEZES INTERSECTING OTHER
BOUNDARIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ALL OF THESE
THREATS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. WILL ALSO HAVE DAMAGING
WIND/LARGE HAIL WORDING IN GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DONE BY 22Z. WILL
LINGER POPS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE CWA.
HIGHEST EVENING POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA CLOSEST TO THE
FRONT AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA WHERE A LAGGING TROUGH COULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION. REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS THERE/S NO COMPELLING
SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING TROF
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE SRN HALF
FCST AREA SUN. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY BUT RELATIVELY
COOL MID LVL TEMPS OF AROUND -16C AND BAND OF 40KT MID-LVL WINDS
ACROSS THEA AREA COULD SUPPORT A FEW SVR STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS GIVEN DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.

QUIET ON MON AS WEAK HIGH PRES DOMINATES. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUE AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED TIME
ESTIMATES OF HIGHEST IMPACT POTENTIAL IN 06Z TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TURNING WINDS TO THE WEST.

SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON MAINLY SRN TERMINALS
(KCHO AND KDCA). NO SIG WX EXPECTED MON-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WAS PRODUCING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE BAY. AS WINDS FROM AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET MIX DOWN TODAY...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO ACHIEVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THAT COULD GUST 25 OR 30 KT AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BAY BY 6 PM AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS.

SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQ
LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS. NO FLAGS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TUE OUTSIDE OF TSTMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>537.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...PELOQUIN
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...PELOQUIN/LFR
MARINE...PELOQUIN/LFR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
842 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

MDZ501-502-WVZ503-504-311330-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY MD-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY MD-
WESTERN MINERAL WV-EASTERN MINERAL WV-
842 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO ALLEGANY AND MINERAL COUNTIES...

AT 842 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF BARTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF LONACONING...WESTERNPORT...FROSTBURG...LA VALE...
RIDGELEY...CUMBERLAND AND FORT ASHBY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
844 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

MDZ501-502-WVZ503-504-311330-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY MD-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY MD-
WESTERN MINERAL WV-EASTERN MINERAL WV-
844 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ALLEGANY AND MINERAL COUNTIES...

AT 842 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF BARTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF LONACONING...WESTERNPORT...FROSTBURG...LA VALE...
RIDGELEY...CUMBERLAND AND FORT ASHBY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
919 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

MDZ003-502-WVZ050-051-504-311400-
WASHINGTON MD-HAMPSHIRE WV-MORGAN WV-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY MD-
EASTERN MINERAL WV-
919 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT WASHINGTON...HAMPSHIRE...MORGAN...
ALLEGANY AND MINERAL COUNTIES...

AT 919 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
WEST OF LEVELS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF ROMNEY...HANCOCK...LINEBURG AND PAW PAW WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

GMS