Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
716 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES
WL APRCH THE AREA AGAIN THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS TORNADO WATCH 280. A LINE
OF STORMS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. A FEW STORMS
ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY
OUT.

QSTNRY BNDRY NW OF CWFA ATTM. LOPRES ACRS TN. THAT WL BE THE KEY
SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR NXT 24 HRS. MDL OP GDNC/SREF MEANS IN XCLNT
AGREEMENT TRACKING LOW TWD CWFA THIS EVNG...AND WL TRACK ACRS AREA
OVNGT. THERE WL BE TWO THREATS IN 1ST PD...SVR WX...FLLWD BY
FLOODING.

ALTHO VSBL SATPIX DEPICT CLDY SKIES ACRS CWFA...THN SPOTS EVIDENT
ACRS CNTRL VA...AND OUTRIGHT BINOVC SW OF THERE. FEEL THAT CLEARING
CUD MAKE IT INTO SWRN SXNS OF LWX CWFA. IF IT DOES SO...DECENT
INSTBLTY WL BE ABLE TO DVLP /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. PLENTY OF
SHEAR/HELICITY PRESENT. IF THOSE TWO CAN COMBINE FORCES...THEN TSRA
LIKELY TO DVLP. IF IT THEN CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BNDRY LYR...
ROTATING STORMS QUITE LIKELY. LCL 4KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST DISCRETE
STORMS BY 21Z. SWRN HALF OF CWFA PRUDENTLY IN SLGT RISK. BASED ON
H9-8 WNDS...ENUF SHEAR TO INCL SRN MD TOO. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

DURING THE EVNG...THREAT CHGS FM TSTM TO RAFL. SYSTM FAIRLY STACKED
VERTICALLY...WITH RICH MSTR AVBL FM BOTH ATLC AND GLFMEX...DRIVEN BY
INCRG LLJ AND ENHANCED BY H5 S/WV. PWAT INCR TO AOA 1.5IN. SFC LOW
APPEARS TO DEEPEN DUE TO THESE INTERACTIONS. MDL QPF...SPCLY GFS...
APPEARS SUSPECT. THINK ITS HVLY INFLUENCED BY CNVCTV FEEDBACK. BUT
FORCING MECHANISMS...FLOW PTTN AND AVBL MSTR COMBIED LEAD ME TO BE
CONCERNED ABT FLOODING POTENTIAL TNGT. MAIN CONCERN WUD BE RAFL
RATES...SMALL STREAMS...AND URBAN IMPACTS. PWAT AT 2SD ABV NRML...A
GOOD INDICATOR FOR FLOOD POTL. FFG VALUES RATHER HIGH...BUT RATES
AND PROCESSES SHUD OVERCOME THAT. SO...WL RAISE FLOOD WATCH FOR
ENTIRE CWFA XCPT SRN MD.

SINCE DEWPTS WL BE IN THE LWR-MID 60S...DONT THINK TEMPS WLB E ABLE
TO DROP MUCH TNGT. WENT ON HIGH END OF MIN-T GDNC SUITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AT 12Z...SFC LOW ATOP CWFA. BY 18Z...IT SHUD BE OVR ERN SHORE. HVYST
RAFL IN CONVEYOR BELTS ON EAST AND NORTH SIDES...WHICH WL BE ENDING
DURING THE MRNG. WL CONT PCPN THREAT THRU THE AFTN INVOF H5 TROF
AXIS. ALSO...STILL MARGINAL INSTBLY ERN SXNS...AND WL CARRY CHC
THUNDER. AREA UNDERGOING GOOD CAA TAFTN...SO MAXT MUCH LWR. SPREAD
BTWN MAV/MET SMALL...AND BLEND TAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN WL BE WANING AS LOW PRES DEPARTS THE CWA. ONLY PLACE POPS WL
RMN FRI NGT AND SAT WL BE W OF THE APLCHNS. E OF THE MTNS LOOKS
DRY BOTH PDS...AND ENTIRE CWA LOOKS DRY SAT NGT AS SFC HIGH AND
UPR RDG WL BE CENTERED OVER AREA. TEMPS ARND NRML - LOWS 45-50
(XCPT CITIES AND MTNS) FRI AND SAT NGT AND MU60S (AGN COOLER W)
DURG DAY SAT.

INCRSG CLDS ON SUN AFTN AS RDG DEPARTS ALLOWING NEXT RND OF PCPN
TO APRCH THE RGN SUN NGT. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...BUT PSBLY GOING NEG TILT...SO THINK SUN NGT
COULD BE A WET ONE. DEPDNEING ON HOW THE CURRENT RAFL ENDS
UP...A FLD WTCH MAY AGAN BE NEEDED SUN NGT. SPC HAS OUR SRN CWA IN
AN OUTLOOK FOR SVR WX FOR SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS WL HV TO MONITOR.

THE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY DEPART THE RGN...AND HV POPS IN THE FCST
RGT THRU TO MON NGT...B4 RDG RETURNS TUE AND WED. THEN ANOTHER CHC
OF RA PSBL ON THU AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE MID
ATLC.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDS STILL MAINLY AT VFR...THO OCNLY DROPPING TO MVFR W/IN SHRA.
TRENDS WL DEFINITELY GO DOWNHILL AS LOPRES NEARS. LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS OVNGT IN SHRA/TSRA-- LCLLY LWR
INVOF STORMS.  MOST FLGT RESTRICTIONS WL HOLD OFF TIL AFTR 04Z.
IMPVMNT WL COME AFTR 12Z TMRW...BUT MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO
HOLD THRU MRNG.

DIMINISHED CIGS/VSBY XPCTD AT ALL TAF SITES SUN NGT...PSBLY INTO
MON MRNG PUSH.

&&

.MARINE...
WNDS HV STARTED TO SUBSIDE PAST FEW HRS. THIS WL BE THE LULL IN THE
ACTVTY. LLJ WL INCR TO 20-30 KT TNGT...AND 40-50 KT OVNGT...AS LOW
AS 1000 FT OFF WATERS. ANY SHRA CUD MIX THAT DOWN. SCA CONTS...AND
SMW PSBL TNGT.

LOPRES TRACKS ACRS WATERS...AND MIXING IMPVS TMRW IN NW FLOW. MDL
SNDGS SUGGEST 30 KT W/IN REACH. ONCE AGN...SCA CONTS.

SCA CONDS PSBL SUN NGT AND AGN MON AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE CST W/
TIGHT PRES GRAD BEHIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONLY WATER LVLS ABV NRML RESIDE IN NRN BAY...BTWN ONE HALF FT AND 1
FT ABV. ONLY CONCERN WUD BE RISING ANOMOLIES AS LOW TRACKS OHD...
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF FOR ANY HEADLINE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-
     014-501-502.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
     050>056.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WVZ050>055-501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>537.

&&

UPDATE...SAR
PREV DISCUSSION...HTS/WOODY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
723 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

VAZ021-090530-
HIGHLAND-
723 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT...

AT 7:20 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
JUST EAST OF MILL GAP IN HIGHLAND COUNTY MOVING EAST ABOUT 25 MPH.
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP 40 MPH. IF OUTDOORS PLEASE SEEK SAFE
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

ROSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
734 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

VAZ037-090015-
ALBEMARLE VA-
734 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT ALBEMARLE COUNTY...

AT 734 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
SOUTH OF ESMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF ESMONT...GLENDOWER...KEENE AND WOODRIDGE WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

LEE