Severe Thunderstorm Warning 340, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE SUN THROUGH EARLY TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT DUE TO ACTIVE WARNINGS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT. PLEASE REFER
TO SHORT-TERM FUSED PRODUCTS FOR UPDATES ON CURRENT CONVECTION.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION LINGERING INTO SRN MD
UNTIL 9 OR 10 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S SUBURBS
AND 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS. SCT CU TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO POP UP SOME SHOWERS OVER NERN MD SO
INCLUDED A 20 POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. A CAP AROUND 12KFT SHOULD
PREVENT SHRAS INTO GROWING INTO TSTMS. SO NO MENTION OF TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

QUIET FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES SUN THROUGH
EARLY TUE. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE TUE WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS MID- UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SO HOT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95F APPEAR
UNLIKELY. LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUE WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100. COOLER AND DRIER FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVR THE ERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TSRA LIKELY THROUGH 00Z WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...THEN P6SM SKC OVERNIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF TSTMS LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE WX.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. NO SCA
REQUIRED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

PRODUCTS...ROSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
031000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050-051-
WVZ050>055-501>504-031000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-
HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

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