Severe Thunderstorm Warning 337, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE SUN THROUGH EARLY TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT DUE TO ACTIVE WARNINGS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT. PLEASE REFER
TO SHORT-TERM FUSED PRODUCTS FOR UPDATES ON CURRENT CONVECTION.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION LINGERING INTO SRN MD
UNTIL 9 OR 10 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S SUBURBS
AND 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS. SCT CU TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO POP UP SOME SHOWERS OVER NERN MD SO
INCLUDED A 20 POP FOR THE AFTERNOON. A CAP AROUND 12KFT SHOULD
PREVENT SHRAS INTO GROWING INTO TSTMS. SO NO MENTION OF TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

QUIET FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES SUN THROUGH
EARLY TUE. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE TUE WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS MID- UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SO HOT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95F APPEAR
UNLIKELY. LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUE WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100. COOLER AND DRIER FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVR THE ERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TSRA LIKELY THROUGH 00Z WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...THEN P6SM SKC OVERNIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF TSTMS LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE WX.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. NO SCA
REQUIRED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

PRODUCTS...ROSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
031000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050-051-
WVZ050>055-501>504-031000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-
HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
146 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

VAZ026-WVZ054-021830-
PENDLETON WV-ROCKINGHAM VA-
146 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT PENDLETON AND ROCKINGHAM
COUNTIES...

AT 146 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTH OF DEER RUN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS
STORM...WITH NEARLY THE SAME MOVEMENT.

THE COMMUNITIES OF YANKEETOWN AND DEER RUN WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM.

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
217 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

VAZ026-021900-
ROCKINGHAM VA-
217 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND WESTERN ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY...

AT 217 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF YANKEETOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RANIFALL...SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF BROADWAY AND MASSANUTTEN WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY AFFECT AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE
HARRISONBURG AREA BY 245 PM EDT.

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

VAZ027-029-021915-
PAGE VA-SHENANDOAH VA-
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT CENTRAL PAGE AND SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH COUNTIES...

AT 230 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAMBURG...MOVING EAST AT 21 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF QUICKSBURG...LEAKSVILLE AND LURAY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

MDZ003-004-021915-
FREDERICK MD-WASHINGTON MD-
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT WASHINGTON AND FREDERICK
COUNTIES...

AT 234 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
NORTH OF HALFWAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF HAGERSTOWN...BOONSBORO AND WOLFSVILLE WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

MDZ005>007-022000-
CARROLL MD-HARFORD MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT CARROLL...NORTHERN BALTIMORE AND
HARFORD COUNTIES...

AT 303 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF MARYLAND LINE TO 7 MILES WEST OF
MANCHESTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 21 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF MANCHESTER...HAMPSTEAD AND JARRETTSVILLE WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

GMS/PELOQUIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

MDZ003-WVZ051>053-022015-
BERKELEY WV-JEFFERSON WV-MORGAN WV-WASHINGTON MD-
326 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT WASHINGTON...JEFFERSON...BERKELEY
AND MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 326 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BIG POOL...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF WILLIAMSPORT AND SHEPHERDSTOWN WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM.

GMS/PELOQUIN