Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
325 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT MAY BRING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RISE BACK TO
NORTH INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER THICK CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
BREAKS WERE ALLOWING FOR WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY.

CONVECTION...SOME STRONG...WAS ALL AROUND US BUT NOT OVER US AT 2
PM. BUT AM CONCERNED THAT CONVECTION WILL WORK INTO THE CWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF
OUR CWA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PA AND WV THAT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS CLOSER TO BETTER SHEAR...UP TO 40
KT IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...AND IS LINKED TO STRONGER FORCING WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. IN ADDITION...MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINEAR BANDS. ANY OF SUCH
CONVECTION COULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND WORDING IN GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS. COORDINATION WITH SPC ALSO DRIVES US TO ISSUE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH SHORTLY.

NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH CONTINUE CONVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE MTNS. BOTH ALSO IMPLY THAT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY EXIST AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN TO THE POINT
/WITH SURFACE AND UPPER FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL/ WHERE TRAINING BECOMES
AN ISSUE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SAME AREAS AS
BEFORE...BUT WAS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMPORALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE LINGERED
POPS IN THE MORNING SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SLOWER SOLUTION...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS DOLLY NEARS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTLINE. RIDGING WAS
OCCURRING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
12Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

RISING HEIGHTS ENCOURAGES HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS WORK WEEK. WEAK WAVES ALOFT EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
BREAK DOWN THE SURFACE HIGH AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO BUILD BACK NORTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PASSAGE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EMBEDDED
WITHIN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A LINE OR TWO OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS
AS A TEMPO GROUP. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR FOG
AFTERWARDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 14Z OR SO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEEK...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING. ITS MARGINAL RIGHT
NOW...BUT WINDS MAY IMPROVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 20 KT OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD PROMPT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEEK...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ042-052>056.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>537.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...PELOQUIN
LONG TERM...ROGOWSKI
AVIATION...PELOQUIN/ROGOWSKI
MARINE...PELOQUIN/ROGOWSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
241000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
400 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO WBCFFALWX /WGUS61/ FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 11 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050-051-
WVZ050>055-501>504-241000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-
HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
400 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FREDERICK...MONTGOMERY...
CARROLL..AND HARFORD COUNTIES IN MARYLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IN VIRGINIA THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOUDOUN COUNTY.
PLEASE REFER TO WBCFFALWX /WGUS61/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 11 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
417 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

VAZ026-027-WVZ054-055-232115-
HARDY WV-PENDLETON WV-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-
417 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST SHENANDOAH...NORTHEAST
PENDLETON...SOUTHERN HARDY AND NORTHWEST ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 417 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CRIDERS IN NORTHEAST PENDLETON COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT
17 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

THE COMMUNITIES OF CRIDERS...YANKEETOWN...BERGTON...FULKS RUN...TUNIS
AND ORKNEY SPRINGS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

ROGOWSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
511 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     THURMONT                39.62N 77.41W
07/23/2008                   FREDERICK          MD   NWS EMPLOYEE

0123 AM     HAIL             3 NNE SMITHSBURG        39.70N 77.56W
07/23/2008  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         MD   CO-OP OBSERVER

0115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WINCHESTER              39.17N 78.18W
07/23/2008                   CITY OF WINCHESTER VA   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN

&&

LROSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
513 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

VAZ026-027-029-030-039-040-WVZ055-232215-
HARDY WV-MADISON VA-PAGE VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-
SHENANDOAH VA-WARREN VA-
513 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NORTHERN
MADISON...PAGE...SOUTHWEST RAPPAHANNOCK...SOUTHWEST
WARREN...SHENANDOAH...SOUTHEAST HARDY AND NORTHEAST ROCKINGHAM
COUNTIES...

AT 513 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES WEST OF JEROME TO 5 MILES WEST OF
NEWPORT...ENTERING SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY...AND MOVING EAST AT
21 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

THE COMMUNITIES OF MOUNT JACKSON...STANLEY...LURAY AND STRASBURG MAY
BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

ROGOWSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
525 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

MDZ003-502-WVZ050-051-232200-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY MD-HAMPSHIRE WV-MORGAN WV-WASHINGTON MD-
525 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT WESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN
HAMPSHIRE...MORGAN AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

AT 525 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELLEGROVE TO 2 MILES EAST
OF WAPOCOMO...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

THE COMMUNITIES OF BELLEGROVE...MAGNOLIA...PAW PAW...LITTLE
ORLEANS...LINEBURG...SLANESVILLE...GREAT CACAPON AND HANCOCK MAY BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

ROGOWSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
547 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

VAZ026-029-037>039-050-232245-
ALBEMARLE VA-GREENE VA-MADISON VA-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-
547 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT WESTERN
ORANGE...GREENE...MADISON...SOUTHERN PAGE...ALBEMARLE AND NORTHEAST
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 547 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHENANDOAH TO DYKE TO 2
MILES EAST OF BATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 22 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

THE COMMUNITIES OF STANARDSVILLE...BIG MEADOWS AND MADISON MAY BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

ROGOWSKI