Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS TONIGHT/S
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE...CONCENTRATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR CLOVIS TO HOBBS. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE CORRIDOR IN WHICH DIURNAL MIXING IS TIGHTENING A
DRYLINE. AT LEAST ONE...POSSIBLY TWO...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED BOUNDARIES ALSO APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING IN THE CU FIELD OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS IS IN THE SUSPECTED VICINITY OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY
EVIDENCE OF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY RESULTANT SOUTH OF
TODAY/S CENTRAL/NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS CLOUD COVER.

GENERALLY EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP VICINITY THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SUPERCELLULAR...PLEASE REFER TO TORNADO WATCH 267. THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS/RAIN SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A LLJ DEVELOPS AND EFFECTIVELY HELPS TO
SPREAD/PROPAGATE CONVECTION EASTWARD. SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO JUSTIFY A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

THE RISK FOR CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH
GRADUALLY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME
AS THE UA LOW PROPAGATES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COLD CORE ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ZONES AS A
DRY SLOT WRAPS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO BE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTO END
OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OSCILLATING BETWEEN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. DRY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW
IS EXPECTED WEST OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO WITH LITTLE IN WAY OF
MOISTURE AS DRY LINE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING WILL DRIVE THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS AFTER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...SUNDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TOWARD EAST TEXAS...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  75  50  85  51 /  60  20  10   0   0
TULIA         58  76  50  84  53 /  60  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     58  78  51  87  53 /  60  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     58  80  53  90  54 /  60  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  77  54  90  56 /  60  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  86  54  92  56 /  60  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    58  85  55  92  55 /  60  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     65  76  54  87  60 /  60  50  20   0   0
SPUR          64  79  53  90  58 /  50  30  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     67  88  56  90  63 /  50  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

20/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
248 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

TXZ021>044-072000-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
248 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE WEST TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE AND THE
INTERSTATE 27 AND HIGHWAY 87. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT.

IF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS MORNING/S HEAVY
RAINFALL...SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
517 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

TXZ040-041-062245-
LYNN TX-TERRY TX-
517 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TERRY AND LYNN COUNTIES...

AT 514 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF UNION...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BROWNFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. ADDITIONAL
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER LYNN COUNTY...NORTH OF NEW
MOORE.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AND HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

KW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

TXZ027-028-062315-
BAILEY TX-LAMB TX-
538 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS BAILEY COUNTY...

AT 534 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ENOCHS...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF MORTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

TXZ035-062315-
LUBBOCK TX-
547 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LUBBOCK COUNTY...

AT 544 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF WOODROW...OR ABOUT 12 MILES WEST
OF SLATON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AND HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING.

KW