Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE AIDED IN PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CHILDRESS
COUNTY INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS
WITH DIFFLUENT AREA OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SURFACE ANALYSIS
ALSO HAS A CONVERGENCE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT 18Z.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 50 DEW POINTS BANKED UP AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS AND 60S MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CURRENTLY CONVECTION SEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH GOOD SHEAR AND FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS
THEY ROLL INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURE
ACROSS THE REGION...LOWS TUESDAY MORNING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTION TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE ATMOSPHERE
RECOVERS...CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS TO AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE DRY
LINE OVER NEW MEXICO IS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE LONG TERM GRIDS WILL BE A TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN AFTER THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE JET
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A SHARP DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN UP BY THE
EVENING HOURS WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
A STRONG SURFACE CAP SHOULD ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN BY THE
EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING
AND NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO MIX EAST EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD THEN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT POSSIBLY STILL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL ENSUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IN
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. A FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. JDV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  84  50  78  50 /  50  10  30  10  10
TULIA         60  85  54  80  53 /  50  20  50  10  10
PLAINVIEW     60  85  56  81  54 /  50  20  50  10  10
LEVELLAND     61  84  56  85  55 /  50  20  50  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  84  57  83  57 /  40  20  50  10  10
DENVER CITY   61  84  55  87  53 /  40  20  40  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  84  56  86  55 /  40  20  50  10  10
CHILDRESS     63  85  65  83  58 /  40  20  60  30  10
SPUR          64  85  60  85  58 /  40  20  50  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  84  64  89  60 /  40  20  60  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

08/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

TXZ021>044-061630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1126 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...MAINLY THE AREA ON THE
CAPROCK. AS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO DISSIPATE...HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THERE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

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