Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS St. Louis, MO

March 17, 20084 counties in Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 17, 2008, 10:20 AM CDT for 4 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 17, 2008, 10:20 AM CDT (15:20 UTC)
Expired: Mar 17, 2008, 10:45 AM CDT
In force: 25 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Callaway County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Osage County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jan 7, 1:52 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	146 days

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 277 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1121 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 735 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 823 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KLSX 171520
SVRLSX
MOC027-073-139-151-171545-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0050.080317T1520Z-080317T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1020 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
  NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
  NORTHERN GASCONADE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
  SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 1016 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF LINN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 70 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FRANKENSTEIN...
  CHAMOIS...
  GASCONADE...
  HERMANN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO 
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3858 9198 3888 9162 3872 9141 3871 9142
      3871 9140 3869 9137 3865 9137 3863 9138
      3844 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1520Z 235DEG 62KT 3857 9173

$$

TILLY

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 17, 6:51 AM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 6:51 AM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
651 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. H500 RIDGE WILL SLIDE E OF
THE FA THIS MORNING...AND STRONG MID LEVEL WAA FAST ON ITS HEELS
ALREADY...AND WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS IN THAT AREA AS WELL...
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER THE SRN FA. WITH WAA/
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING OVER THE NRN 3/4 OF
THE FA...LOOK FOR SHRA/TSRA TO EXPAND. HAVE EXPANDED LIKELY POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE FA THIS MORNING AS A RESULT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THE BETTER AND MORE PERSISTENT FORCING WILL SETTLE INTO AREAS N
AND W OF KSTL.

A RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SWLY FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD TONIGHT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SWRN CONUS. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
ACT ON A HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND MOIST COLUMN...WITH PWATS RISING TO
OVER 300PCT OF NORMAL. THIS SCENARIO WILL LAST OVER A 36HR PERIOD
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ADD IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM ELEVATED CAPES
OF 400 J/KG FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY INTENSE...ALBEIT
RELATIVELY BRIEF...RAINFALL RATES...AND MOST AREAS HAVING SEEN
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND WITH WET AND NEARLY SATURATED SOILS...
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LOOKS TO BE RATHER HIGH THRU
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOOD WATCHES TO CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS.

OF PARTICULAR NOTE WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER AREAS S AND E OF KSTL...WHERE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL SETTLE IN OVER THAT
AREA AND INTERSECT WITH PWATS STILL CLOSE TO 300PCT OF NORMAL.
THIS WILL BE THE MOST ORGANIZED PART OF THIS EVENT.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN MOST AREAS N OF I-70 TODAY WITH
AMPLE CLOUDCOVER AND LIKELY RAIN OCCURRENCES. WENT AOB THE COOLEST
MOS. OVER SERN MO...CONTINUED TO GO WITH THE WARMEST MOS WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...STRONG SLY FLOW...AND VERY WARM
TEMPS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN.

HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY FOR MOST SITES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...
WITH CD FROPA EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY FOR THE NWRN FA...AND BY
ERY AFTN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA. CLOUDS...PCPN...AND
STRONG LO LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTN.

THE ONE PART WHERE THE MODELS STILL HAVE ISSUES IS ON WEDNESDAY.
GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST GUNG-HO ON DEVELOPING A DEFORMATION ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO IT BEING THE SLOWEST TO OPEN THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM AS
IT FINALLY EJECTS FROM NRN /OLD/ MEXICO. HAVE NOTICED THAT
SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN HINTING MORE AT THIS SCENARIO
AND HAVE THUS DECIDED TO PLAY UP THIS A BIT MORE ON THE POPS FOR S
AND E OF KSTL. BELIEVE BDRY LYR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM TO RESULT
IN NON-LIQUID PCPN AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL RAIN...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RESULTING LOW
CIGS AND VSBYS. THINK FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH 00Z AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE
CWFA...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
DAY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA AFTER
00Z AS WELL. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OSAGE-ST.
     CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR IRON-
     MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-MONITEAU-
     MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.

IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON
     IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-MARION IL-RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 17, 5:45 AM CDT, 4 hours 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-181200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
545 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ST LOUIS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND OVER THE AREA...
THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. SEE THE FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ST LOUIS.
THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND OVER THE AREA...THERE IS AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. SEE THE FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT
FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF ST LOUIS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT ANY HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 17, 9:26 AM CDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
926 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 AM     HAIL             20 SW HERMANN           38.49N 91.70W
03/17/2008  E0.25 INCH       OSAGE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDYE

Local storm report, Mar 17, 9:50 AM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
950 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 AM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N 92.33W
03/17/2008  E0.25 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDYE

Local storm report, Mar 17, 9:51 AM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
951 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 AM     HAIL             WATERLOO                38.33N 90.16W
03/17/2008  E0.25 INCH       MONROE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDYE

Special weather statement, Mar 17, 10:01 AM CDT, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1001 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

MOZ048>050-171530-
OSAGE MO-COLE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
1001 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

AT 1000 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARDSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AS IT AFFECTS
FRANKENSTEIN...TEBBETTS...LINN...STEEDMAN...MOKANE...CHAMOIS...
PORTLAND AND REFORM BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 1030 AM.

TILLY

Local storm report, Mar 17, 10:06 AM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1006 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     HAIL             JEFFERSON CITY          38.57N 92.19W
03/17/2008  E0.25 INCH       COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDYE

Local storm report, Mar 17, 10:17 AM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1017 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 AM     HAIL             CHESTERFIELD            38.65N 90.58W
03/17/2008  E0.75 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON OLIVE STREET 2 MILES EAST OF HIGHWAY 40

&&

BDYE

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 17, 7:52 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Iron, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois, Washington	38 min
Mar 17, 8:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois	47 min
Mar 17, 9:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson, Washington	32 min
Mar 17, 9:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Callaway, Gasconade, Montgomery, Osage, Warren	29 min
Mar 17, 10:11 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Lincoln	3 days
Mar 17, 10:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	26 min
Mar 17, 10:41 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Marion	28 hr
Mar 17, 10:42 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Montgomery, Warren	17 min
Mar 17, 11:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Lincoln, Montgomery, Pike, Warren	25 min
Mar 17, 12:43 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Cole	3 days
Mar 17, 2:39 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Audrain, Boone, Callaway	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.