Severe Thunderstorm Warning 419, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 052220
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
520 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

ILC013-149-MOC163-052230-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0419.000000T0000Z-080805T2230Z/
CALHOUN IL-PIKE IL-PIKE MO-
520 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND EASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 517 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR PAYNESVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELSBERRY...AND WAS MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...HAMBURG
AND MOZIER.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. THIS IS 
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3947 9062 3921 9063 3927 9125 3945 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 276DEG 35KT 3925 9086

$$

TILLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
332 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/326 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TRANSITIONING FROM HEAT TO POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS WORKED SWWD AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM HANNIBAL THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE DROPPED THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY WHERE WHERE CRITERIA WILL LIKEELY NOT BE MET THE REST OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES IN THE 3000-5000 J/KG RANGE
WITH WEAKING CIN IN ADVANCE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MO ALONG WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS FOCUS FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP ON. WHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE SUFFICENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS IF
THEY DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY. WILL ALSO BE WATCH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH ANY SLOW MOVING CELLS ALONG FRONT IN
ENVIORNMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOVE 2 INCHES.

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME WNWLY BY TOMORROW AND FRONT WILL STAY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SWRN PART OF THE CWA AND LINGER NEARBY
THROUGH THURSDAY.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA GOING INTO THURSDAY
WHEN FRONT GET PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH AS UPPER FLOW BECOME MORE NWLY
WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING IN THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME SOLAR
INSOLATION FOR MLCAPES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE. THIS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 35-40KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALONG BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
PER SPC SWODY2. WILL KEEP CHC OF SHRA/TRSA GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOWER TODAY AS
THERE ARE SIGNFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN WITH
HOW TO HANDLE POLAR VORTEX OVER ERN CANADA. CONTINUTY OF ECWMF IS
NOT AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY AS POLAR VORTEX REMAINS OVER THE HUDSON
BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INSTEAD OF MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL
QUICKER OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS MO/IL AND FASTER RETURN OF WARMER
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTH AT A SNAILS PACE WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOW PARKED ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREA. LOOKING FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TOWARD EVENING. AFTER A LULL DURING THE MIDNIGHT HOUR...MORE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FORM AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA
AND 850MB CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GO FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH FROPA...BUT VARIABLE
IN VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LOOKS TO BE AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-
     MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS
     CITY-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IRON-MADISON-
     REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MADISON
     IL-MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLINTON IL-MARION
     IL-RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-061215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS BRING AN
END TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
WEATHER...SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR
FLOODING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
238 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     HAIL             5 WSW PALMYRA           39.77N  91.61W
08/05/2008  E0.88 INCH       MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800811

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
301 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             PALMYRA                 39.80N  91.52W
08/05/2008  E1.75 INCH       MARION             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ON SOUTH SIDE OF PALYMRA...TIME APPROXIMATED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800812

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
314 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             HANNIBAL                39.71N  91.38W
08/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE QUARTER MILE EAST OF THE HANNIBAL AIRPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800813

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
411 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 S PARIS               39.42N  92.00W
08/05/2008                   MONROE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS
            IN AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800814

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
419 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 S PARIS               39.42N  92.00W
08/05/2008                   MONROE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY DEPUTIES REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF HWYS 15 AND D

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800815

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
420 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 S PARIS               39.42N  92.00W
08/05/2008                   MONROE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY DEPUTIES REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF HWYS 15 AND D

&&

CORRECTED SOURCE

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800815

TRUETT