Severe Thunderstorm Warning 413, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 051938
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
238 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

ILC001-149-MOC127-163-173-052015-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0413.000000T0000Z-080805T2015Z/
PIKE IL-ADAMS IL-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-MARION MO-
238 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN ADAMS AND WESTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEASTERN MARION...NORTHEASTERN RALLS AND NORTHERN
PIKE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 236 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR PALMYRA...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 21 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
HANNIBAL...FALL CREEK...NEW LONDON...ILASCO...SEEHORN...SAVERTON...
HULL AND KINDERHOOK.

NICKEL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED 5 MILES WEST OF PALMYRA WITH THIS 
STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION 
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3976 9099 3945 9119 3973 9174 3986 9160
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 295DEG 18KT 3974 9151

$$

TILLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

.UPDATE...
/1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008/
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM NEAR QUINCY ILLINOIS TO
THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA AND THEN EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
TO SOUTHERN INDIANA.

STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH A HEIGHTENED RISK IN
VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE WINDS ARE BACKED...OWING TO
ADDITIONAL STORM RELATIVE HELICITY.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SCENARIO OF
CONVECTION INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND OUTFLOW AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A MCS THAT TRAVELS SOUTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

CVKING

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/446 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008/

MCS MOVG EWD THRU SERN IA INTO NWRN IL JUST N OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MRNG.  MID LVL WAA CLOUDINESS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE CWA WITH SCT
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG OR NR COLD FRONT EXTDG
FM MI SW THRU SERN IA TO NERN KS.  THIS CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
SWD TDA WITH AT LEAST SCT TSRA EXPECTED ALONG IT IN THE HOT...HUMID
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND S OF IT.  THE NAM MDL FCSTS K
INDICES TO INCRS INTO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ACRS CNTRL MO BY 00Z
WED...WITH SFC LI VALUES LWRG TO -12 TO -13 ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA BY 18Z TUE.  TDA SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY FM JEF AND VIH TO STL. WILL CONT CURRENT HT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS TIL 7 PM THIS EVNG FOR ALL BUT THE NRN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE CLOUD CVR AND SCT CONVECTION SHOULD
LIMIT DAYTIME HTG. WILL SEE A TRANSITION FM A HOT AND MAINLY
RAINFREE WX PATTERN TO A COOLER AND WETTER WX PATTERN TGT THRU AT
LEAST WED NGT AS THE MID LVL RDG ACRS SRN MO SW INTO OK WKNS AND
SHIFTS SWWD WHILE A FASTER NWLY MID-UPR LVL FLOW BCMS ESTABLISHED
OVER THE CWA. THE CDFNT AND ANY TSRA OUTFLOW BNDRYS FM PAST
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LVL CNVG TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. THIS CDFNT SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD TO CNTRL MO TGT
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A SEWD MOVG MCS DVLPG ALONG IT WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL FCST MAX TEMPS BLW
PERSISTENCE ON WED WITH SOLAR INSOLATION LIMITED BY CLOUD CVR
PLUS COOLING DUE TO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. MID-UPR LVL FRCG SHOULD
BE INCRSG WED AFTN INTO EVNG AS THE MDLS FCST A NW FLOW SHRTWV
TROF TO DROP SEWD THRU THE AREA...PLUS UPR LVL DIVERGENCE WILL BE
INCRSG OVER THE AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR LVL JET
STREAK MOVG SEWD THRU THE GRT LKS INTO THE OH VLY. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SRN PTN OF THE CWA ON THU AS
THE CDFNT DROPS SWD INTO SRN MO...AND THEN EVENTUALLY S OF THE CWA
THU NGT AS THE CDFNT DROPS WELL S OF THE CWA AND A SFC RDG BLDS
SWD INTO THE NRN PTN OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER...LESS HUMID
AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTERING INTO THE NRN PTN OF THE CWA.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
/1233 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTH AT A SNAILS PACE WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOW PARKED ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREA. LOOKING FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TOWARD EVENING. AFTER A LULL DURING THE MIDNIGHT HOUR...MORE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FORM AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA
AND 850MB CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GO FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH FROPA...BUT VARIABLE
IN VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LOOKS TO BE AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-
     MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS
     CITY-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN-IRON-
     LINCOLN-MADISON-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-
     STE. GENEVIEVE.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MADISON
     IL-MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
     MARION IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1245 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-061200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
1245 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 115 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE HOT...HUMID AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
PLEASE RELAY ALL SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING