Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 280335
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1035 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

ILC013-083-117-MOC113-280344-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0405.000000T0000Z-080728T0400Z/
JERSEY IL-CALHOUN IL-MACOUPIN IL-LINCOLN MO-
1034 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHERN MACOUPIN...SOUTHERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHEASTERN JERSEY COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. 
HOWEVER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM.

LAT...LON 3849 8936 3841 8966 3843 9015 3852 9026
      3844 9030 3848 9071 3891 9127 3892 9112
      3888 9111 3887 9097 3894 9067 3888 9063
      3887 9056 3896 9047 3893 9028 3900 9024
      3900 8970 3914 8970 3869 8914 3866 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 313DEG 36KT 3886 8947 3874 8969
          3866 9000 3862 9058 3870 9091

$$

ILC005-027-119-135-163-189-MOC071-099-183-189-219-510-280400-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0405.000000T0000Z-080728T0400Z/
MONTGOMERY IL-WASHINGTON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-CLINTON IL-MADISON IL-
BOND IL-JEFFERSON MO-FRANKLIN MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
ST. CHARLES MO-WARREN MO-
1034 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WARREN...ST. CHARLES...ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...BOND...MADISON...
CLINTON...NORTHERN ST. CLAIR...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 1030 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OLD RIPLEY TO MARINE TO
COLLINSVILLE TO CHESTERFIELD TO NEW MELLE...AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 41 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...
DUDLEYVILLE...SAUGET...JAMESTOWN...FAIRVIEW HEIGHTS...ST. ROSE...
OFALLON...LEBANON...CENTREVILLE...TRENTON AND SWANSEA.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
THE AREA...THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND 
POWERLINES. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3849 8936 3841 8966 3843 9015 3852 9026
      3844 9030 3848 9071 3891 9127 3892 9112
      3888 9111 3887 9097 3894 9067 3888 9063
      3887 9056 3896 9047 3893 9028 3900 9024
      3900 8970 3914 8970 3869 8914 3866 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 313DEG 36KT 3886 8947 3874 8969
          3866 9000 3862 9058 3870 9091

$$

CARNEY

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 280350
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1050 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

ILC005-027-119-135-189-280400-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0405.000000T0000Z-080728T0400Z/
MONTGOMERY IL-WASHINGTON IL-CLINTON IL-MADISON IL-BOND IL-
1050 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BOND...MADISON...CLINTON...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM.

LAT...LON 3884 9012 3871 9020 3862 9017 3852 9024
      3852 9027 3844 9030 3848 9071 3891 9127
      3892 9112 3888 9111 3887 9096 3888 9081
      3891 9081 3892 9073 3891 9071 3894 9067
      3888 9063 3887 9056 3896 9047 3896 9041
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 313DEG 36KT 3855 9012 3851 9043
          3856 9078

$$

ILC163-MOC071-099-183-189-219-510-280400-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0405.000000T0000Z-080728T0400Z/
ST. CLAIR IL-JEFFERSON MO-FRANKLIN MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
ST. CHARLES MO-WARREN MO-
1050 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WARREN...ST. CHARLES...ST. LOUIS...ST. LOUIS CITY...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN ST. CLAIR
COUNTIES...

AT 1047 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EAST CARONDELET TO FENTON TO
MATSON...AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 41 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...MURPHY...
MEHLVILLE...EUREKA...SWANSEA...OAKVILLE AND PARKDALE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3884 9012 3871 9020 3862 9017 3852 9024
      3852 9027 3844 9030 3848 9071 3891 9127
      3892 9112 3888 9111 3887 9096 3888 9081
      3891 9081 3892 9073 3891 9071 3894 9067
      3888 9063 3887 9056 3896 9047 3896 9041
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 313DEG 36KT 3855 9012 3851 9043
          3856 9078

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
728 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.UPDATE...
/720 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008/
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MOVED THE START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP TO
NOW BASED ON MCS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
EXPECT THIS FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND LARGE HAIL AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST GIVEN VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR AND
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. CURRENT TRACK SUGGEST MCS WILL REACH
I-70 BETWEEN 930 AND 10 PM.

BRITT

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/448 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008/

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NWLY FLOW AT H500 TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVEL DOWN THIS
FLOW AND IMPACT THE AREA...WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
CONTINUES TO GATHER STRENGTH AND WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA
WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HEAT.

FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN IS MCS TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT. ORIGINAL
MCS FLYING SEWD THRU ERN IA INTO CNTRL IL AND WILL LARGELY MISS OUR
AREA. HOWEVER...NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE SRN/SWRN PERIPHERY OF THIS
WILL MERGE WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LATER THIS EVENING AND CREATE A
NEW MCS THAT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE SLOWER MOVING INITIALLY UNTIL A GOOD COLD POOL DEVELOPS.
LOOK FOR IT TO MOVE THRU MUCH OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN HOW VULNERABLE TO FLOODING (WITH EXISTING
FLOODING CONTINUING) NERN MO IS FROM PREVIOUS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE ISSUED A FFA TO COVER THIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS
THRU LATE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY BY
SEVERAL DEGS DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN IN WAKE OF MCS.

A QUASI-QUIET PERIOD WILL TAKE HOLD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH MODELS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING REMNANTS OF DOLLY WHICH WILL NOW IMPACT OUR AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE NRN FA TO MAINTAIN RAIN
CHANCES THRU-OUT THIS PERIOD...ALBEIT LOW. SWLY FLOW EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY WITH IMPRESSIVELY WARM H850 TEMPS OF 22-24C...BUT PRESENCE
OF RAIN...APPROACH OF DOLLY...LACK OF A CLASSIC SETUP...AND
UNUSUALLY MOIST GROUND WILL ALL WORK AGAINST SUPPORTING WARMER MAV
NUMBERS...NOT TO MENTION THE MAV WARM TRACK RECORD ALL THRU THE
SUMMER. WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLER MOS VALUES SEEN ON THE MET AND FWC
FOR TUESDAY MAX TEMPS.

DOLLY REMNANTS WILL THEN MAKE THEIR WAY THRU MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE EDGED POPS TO HIGH-END
CHANCE FOR NOW. VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM TO
POINT TOWARDS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN. AGAIN
TRIMMED MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN CLOUDS IN THE WAKE.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE H500 MASS FIELDS THAN THEY
HAVE IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MEAN RIDGE POSN OVER THE WRN
CONUS TO EXPAND EWD INTO THE CNTRL CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
MEAN AN END TO OUR NWLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE TIME BEING AND THE
INTRODUCTION OF A MORE DRY PERIOD INTO THE FORECAST. IF MID LEVEL
RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD IN OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THEN IT WILL ONLY
NEED A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SFC TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SERN
CONUS IN ORDER FOR A TRADITIONAL SETUP TO A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE TO
EXIST FOR OUR AREA. IN ANY EVENT...WE HAVE SOME TIME TO WATCH THIS
AND IT WILL PROBABLY CHANGE A BIT BY THEN. CENTERED PCPN CHCS AROUND
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO BE EXITING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SERN
FA...WITH MODELS BRINGING FRONT THRU ON THURSDAY AND PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT...WENT DRY AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINANT...AND PCPN CHCS WILL BE TOO LOW TO
PICK OUT BY THAT TIME. TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND SLOWLY
RECOVERING SLY FLOW AT THE LO LEVELS...IT ALL POINTS TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/518 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MCS OVER IA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD THRU THE
CWA TGT. WILL INCLUDE TSRA WITH STG WND GUSTS IN UIN THIS
EVNG...AND INCLUDE A TEMPO GRP OF TSRA IN COU...STL AND SUS JUST
BFR MIDNIGHT. THE STG TSRA SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SEWD THRU THE TAF
SITES FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF -TSRA OR -SHRA. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH SE OF THE TAF SITES BY EARLY MRNG. WILL
HAVE LEFT OVER MID-HI LVL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MON MRNG
WITH SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS MON AFTN. S-SELY
PREVAILING SFC WNDS WL CONT TGT...THEN MAINLY SLY ON MON. MAY
HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NWLY SFC WNDS TGT JUST BHND CONVECTIVE
LINE/TSRA OUTFLOW BNDRY.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN-KNOX-LEWIS-
     MARION-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
     PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
607 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND
TRAVEL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMPLEX WILL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDICES TO
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE CITY OF ST. LOUIS AND ITS
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTERS
ARE ALSO ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
923 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 S CLARENCE            39.66N  92.26W
07/27/2008                   SHELBY             MO   STORM CHASER

            POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD OR TORNADO SOUTH OF
            CLARENCE...MULTIPLE POWER FLASHES OBSERVED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800747

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
945 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
07/27/2008                   ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN AND POWER IS OUT AT SPOTTERS HOUSE.
            ALSO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS EVENING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800748

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
953 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUND STATION           40.01N  90.87W
07/27/2008                   BROWN              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND LIMBS DOWN IN MOUND STATION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800749

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
958 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W PORTAGE DES SIOUX   38.93N  90.43W
07/27/2008  M56 MPH          ST. CHARLES        MO   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800751

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1002 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TROY                    38.98N  90.98W
07/27/2008                   LINCOLN            MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES ARE REPORTED DOWN IN TROY...ELSEBERRY AND
            WINFIELD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800752

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1007 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     TSTM WND GST     BETHALTO                38.90N  90.05W
07/27/2008  E60 MPH          MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800753

SIPPRELL