Severe Thunderstorm Warning 402, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 280254
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
954 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

ILC149-MOC163-280303-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0402.000000T0000Z-080728T0315Z/
PIKE IL-PIKE MO-
953 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST
MISSOURI IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. 
HOWEVER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM.

LAT...LON 3884 8978 3870 9023 3863 9074 3885 9097
      3887 9096 3914 9126 3914 9119 3923 9118
      3922 9073 3929 9077 3939 9063 3953 9004
      3915 8970 3900 8970 3899 8965 3898 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 317DEG 41KT 3920 8983 3902 9002
          3886 9055 3889 9097

$$

ILC013-061-083-117-119-MOC113-183-189-510-280315-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0402.000000T0000Z-080728T0315Z/
MADISON IL-JERSEY IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-
ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-LINCOLN MO-
953 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR LINCOLN...ST. CHARLES...NORTHERN ST. LOUIS...NORTHEASTERN ST.
LOUIS CITY...MACOUPIN...GREENE...CALHOUN...JERSEY AND NORTHERN
MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 951 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARLINVILLE TO MILES STATION TO
GOLDEN EAGLE TO MOSCOW MILLS...AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 47 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...
WILSONVILLE...PRAIRIETOWN...GILLESPIE...DORSEY...WOOD RIVER...WHITE
CITY...STAUNTON...MOUNT OLIVE...JENNINGS AND WORDEN.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3884 8978 3870 9023 3863 9074 3885 9097
      3887 9096 3914 9126 3914 9119 3923 9118
      3922 9073 3929 9077 3939 9063 3953 9004
      3915 8970 3900 8970 3899 8965 3898 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 317DEG 41KT 3920 8983 3902 9002
          3886 9055 3889 9097

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
728 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.UPDATE...
/720 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008/
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MOVED THE START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP TO
NOW BASED ON MCS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
EXPECT THIS FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND LARGE HAIL AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST GIVEN VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR AND
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. CURRENT TRACK SUGGEST MCS WILL REACH
I-70 BETWEEN 930 AND 10 PM.

BRITT

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/448 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008/

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NWLY FLOW AT H500 TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVEL DOWN THIS
FLOW AND IMPACT THE AREA...WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
CONTINUES TO GATHER STRENGTH AND WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA
WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HEAT.

FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN IS MCS TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT. ORIGINAL
MCS FLYING SEWD THRU ERN IA INTO CNTRL IL AND WILL LARGELY MISS OUR
AREA. HOWEVER...NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE SRN/SWRN PERIPHERY OF THIS
WILL MERGE WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LATER THIS EVENING AND CREATE A
NEW MCS THAT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE SLOWER MOVING INITIALLY UNTIL A GOOD COLD POOL DEVELOPS.
LOOK FOR IT TO MOVE THRU MUCH OF THE FA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN HOW VULNERABLE TO FLOODING (WITH EXISTING
FLOODING CONTINUING) NERN MO IS FROM PREVIOUS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE ISSUED A FFA TO COVER THIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS
THRU LATE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY BY
SEVERAL DEGS DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN IN WAKE OF MCS.

A QUASI-QUIET PERIOD WILL TAKE HOLD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH MODELS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING REMNANTS OF DOLLY WHICH WILL NOW IMPACT OUR AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE NRN FA TO MAINTAIN RAIN
CHANCES THRU-OUT THIS PERIOD...ALBEIT LOW. SWLY FLOW EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY WITH IMPRESSIVELY WARM H850 TEMPS OF 22-24C...BUT PRESENCE
OF RAIN...APPROACH OF DOLLY...LACK OF A CLASSIC SETUP...AND
UNUSUALLY MOIST GROUND WILL ALL WORK AGAINST SUPPORTING WARMER MAV
NUMBERS...NOT TO MENTION THE MAV WARM TRACK RECORD ALL THRU THE
SUMMER. WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLER MOS VALUES SEEN ON THE MET AND FWC
FOR TUESDAY MAX TEMPS.

DOLLY REMNANTS WILL THEN MAKE THEIR WAY THRU MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE EDGED POPS TO HIGH-END
CHANCE FOR NOW. VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM TO
POINT TOWARDS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN. AGAIN
TRIMMED MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN CLOUDS IN THE WAKE.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE H500 MASS FIELDS THAN THEY
HAVE IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MEAN RIDGE POSN OVER THE WRN
CONUS TO EXPAND EWD INTO THE CNTRL CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
MEAN AN END TO OUR NWLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE TIME BEING AND THE
INTRODUCTION OF A MORE DRY PERIOD INTO THE FORECAST. IF MID LEVEL
RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD IN OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THEN IT WILL ONLY
NEED A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SFC TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SERN
CONUS IN ORDER FOR A TRADITIONAL SETUP TO A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE TO
EXIST FOR OUR AREA. IN ANY EVENT...WE HAVE SOME TIME TO WATCH THIS
AND IT WILL PROBABLY CHANGE A BIT BY THEN. CENTERED PCPN CHCS AROUND
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO BE EXITING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SERN
FA...WITH MODELS BRINGING FRONT THRU ON THURSDAY AND PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT...WENT DRY AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINANT...AND PCPN CHCS WILL BE TOO LOW TO
PICK OUT BY THAT TIME. TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND SLOWLY
RECOVERING SLY FLOW AT THE LO LEVELS...IT ALL POINTS TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/518 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MCS OVER IA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD THRU THE
CWA TGT. WILL INCLUDE TSRA WITH STG WND GUSTS IN UIN THIS
EVNG...AND INCLUDE A TEMPO GRP OF TSRA IN COU...STL AND SUS JUST
BFR MIDNIGHT. THE STG TSRA SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SEWD THRU THE TAF
SITES FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF -TSRA OR -SHRA. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH SE OF THE TAF SITES BY EARLY MRNG. WILL
HAVE LEFT OVER MID-HI LVL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MON MRNG
WITH SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS MON AFTN. S-SELY
PREVAILING SFC WNDS WL CONT TGT...THEN MAINLY SLY ON MON. MAY
HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NWLY SFC WNDS TGT JUST BHND CONVECTIVE
LINE/TSRA OUTFLOW BNDRY.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN-KNOX-LEWIS-
     MARION-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
     PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
607 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND
TRAVEL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMPLEX WILL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDICES TO
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE CITY OF ST. LOUIS AND ITS
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTERS
ARE ALSO ASKED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
908 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUISIANA               39.44N  91.06W
07/27/2008                   PIKE               MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE CITY OF LOUISIANA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800743

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
910 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PLEASANT HILL           39.44N  90.87W
07/27/2008  M1.50 INCH       PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800744

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
913 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N PITTSFIELD          39.65N  90.81W
07/27/2008  E70 MPH          PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN AND CORN FLATTENED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800745

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
915 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARRY                   39.70N  91.04W
07/27/2008                   PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS 2 TO 3 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN...WITH POWER OUT
            IN PARTS OF THE CITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800746

CVKING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
918 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

ILZ059-060-064-100>102-MOZ041-047>051-059>065-280315-
BOND IL-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON IL-MONITEAU-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
ST CHARLES-ST CLAIR IL-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-WARREN-
918 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING.  THIS LINE WILL REACH A COLUMBIA MISSOURI TO ST. LOUIS TO
HIGHLAND ILLINOIS BETWEEN 10 AND 1030 PM. THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.

NOW IS THE TIME TO ACT.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A STURDY STRUCTURE
BEFORE THESE SEVERE STORMS REACH YOUR LOCATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATION FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
923 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 S CLARENCE            39.66N  92.26W
07/27/2008                   SHELBY             MO   STORM CHASER

            POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD OR TORNADO SOUTH OF
            CLARENCE...MULTIPLE POWER FLASHES OBSERVED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800747

CVKING