River Flood Warning 314, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 270221
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
820 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MOREAU RIVER NEAR JEFFERSON
CITY... 

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS BASE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ON SEMI-FROZEN GROUND WITH NO VEGETATION ALLOWING RAINFALL TO
RUN-OFF QUICKLY INTO LOW LYING AREAS....

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC051-280220-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0314.081227T2050Z-081230T1200Z/
/JCMM7.2.ER.081227T2050Z.081228T1800Z.081229T1200Z.NO/
820 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MOREAU RIVER NEAR JEFFERSON CITY
* AT 7:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.8 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW EARLY 
  AFTERNOON AND THEN RISE TO NEAR 28.8 FEET SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS
* IMPACT...AT 29.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/27  12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31

MOREAU RIVER
  JEFFERSON CITY   17   2.83       5.0   28.1   17.0    4.4    2.6

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 271501
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
900 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  MOREAU RIVER NEAR JEFFERSON CITY AFFECTING COLE COUNTY 

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE 
PAST 24 HOURS AND 0.90 INCHES FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER THAN 
PREDICTED.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS 
CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC051-281500-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0314.081228T1528Z-081230T0328Z/
/JCMM7.1.ER.081228T1528Z.081229T0000Z.081229T0328Z.NO/
900 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MOREAU RIVER NEAR JEFFERSON CITY
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  8:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 2.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.1 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01

MOREAU RIVER
  JEFFERSON CITY   17  2.72      15.9   11.3    3.5    2.5    2.3

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 280139
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
738 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN
MISSOURI...
 
      MOREAU RIVER NEAR JEFFERSON CITY

.THIS WILL BE THE LAST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT...


THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC051-280208-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0314.000000T0000Z-081230T0328Z/
/JCMM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
738 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MOREAU RIVER NEAR JEFFERSON CITY.
* AT 6:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 16.3 FEET 
  SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01

MOREAU RIVER
  JEFFERSON CITY   17    6.07      9.0    3.4    2.5    2.3    2.2

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
140 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/138 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008/
HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WERE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WAS ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A HEAVY WINTER RAIN EVENT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST MO INTO NORTHEAST OK. FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY, AND EXPECT THE FRONT WILL LIE NEAR A CHICAGO-ST
LOUIS-LITTLE ROCK LINE BY SUNSET SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY ON SATURDAY AND SWEEP INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN FORECASTING A 160 METER H5 HEIGHT FALL CENTER OVER EASTERN KS
SATURDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

850 MB DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 10-13C RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SATURDAY. K INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF SPRING AND SUMMER. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY,
BUT EXPECT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. JUST COULDNT
GET OUT OF 2008 WITHOUT ONE MORE FLOOD.

WEATHER QUIETS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

TPS
&&

.AVIATION...
/1203 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

QUITE A RANGE OF CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DENSE
FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IL...VFR IN CENTRAL MO AND A COMBO OF
MVFR AND IFR ELSEWHERE. AT THE SAME TIME A STOUT 50+ SSWLY LLJ IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR LLWS. THINK THE GENERAL
TREND FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR CIGS TO LOWER INTO AND
TOWARDS THE LOW END OF THE MVFR CAT. THINKING THAT PCPN WILL BE
RATHER SPOTTY AT BEST. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIGS GRADUALLY TAKING
HOLD TONIGHT. MAIN PCPN THREAT SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
WDSPRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MO AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WDSPRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SAT. I
HESITATED TO PUT THUNDER IN THE MAIN BODY OF THE TAF ON SAT...BUT
IT IS QUITE LIKELY THERE WILL BE THUNDER OFF AND ON ALL DAY.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-
     GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-
     MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-
     ST. CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE.
     GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON
     IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-
     MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST.
     CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOND IL-
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-MARION IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1242 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
1242 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION AS HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON EITHER
SATURATED OR FROZEN GROUND. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS AND WATCH...PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS.

SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 IN MISSOURI AND
INTERSTATE 70 IN ILLINOIS.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECT TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UNDER AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW ON THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE REQUIRED
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

GLASS