River Flood Warning 313, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS43 KLSX 261926
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
126 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008


...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI...ILLINOIS... 


  MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY

  LA MOINE RIVER AT RIPLEY AFFECTING BROWN COUNTY

  NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA AFFECTING MARION COUNTY

  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR AFFECTING MARION COUNTY


.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION 
FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER THAN 
PREDICTED.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS 
CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC111-271926-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0310.081229T1500Z-081231T1630Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.081229T1500Z.081230T0600Z.081230T1630Z.NO/
126 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING.
* AT 12:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CREST NEAR 12.7 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 


$$

ILC009-271925-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0311.081228T0300Z-081229T1800Z/
/RIPI2.1.ER.081228T0300Z.081228T0600Z.081228T1800Z.NO/
126 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE LA MOINE RIVER AT RIPLEY.
* AT 11:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY LATE EVENING AND 
  CREST NEAR 22.5 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS.  10,000 ACRES ARE 
  FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  FARMLAND FLOODING AND RURAL 
  DAMAGES BEGIN.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...BANKS BEGIN TO OVERFLOW.


$$

MOC127-271925-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0312.081227T1028Z-081229T1617Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.081227T1028Z.081228T0000Z.081228T1617Z.NO/
126 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA.
* AT 12:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.4 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AND CREST
  NEAR 18.1 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 17.1 FEET...AGRICULTURAL LAND ALONG THE LEFT BANK BEGINS
  FLOODING NEAR THE GAGE.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 341, NORTH OF PALMYRA, IS 
  FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS.  LEFT BANK BEGINS 
  TO FLOOD NEAR THE GAGE.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MARION COUNTY RD 341 NORTH OF PALMYRA 
  INUNDATED. SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL LAND FLOODING...RIGHT BANK.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 333, EAST OF PALMYRA, BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.


$$

MOC127-271925-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0313.081227T2234Z-081231T0105Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.081227T2234Z.081229T0000Z.081230T0105Z.NO/
126 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR.
* AT 12:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 
  CREST NEAR 12.1 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...BOTH BANKS BEGIN TO OVERFLOW LOW LEVEL 
  FARMLANDS.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 117 WEST OF TAYLOR FLOODS.
* IMPACT...AT 9.5 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/27  12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31

MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            12  3.69       4.3    8.1   11.8   12.6    7.9

LA MOINE RIVER
  RIPLEY           22  7.68      16.0   22.4   20.0   19.1   15.6

NORTH RIVER
  PALMYRA          13  4.41      14.4   14.0    7.8    5.5    5.0

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           10  3.25       5.3   11.1   11.4    7.4    4.9

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 270252
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
852 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

..THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI..
 
  MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING  

  NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA AFFECTING 

  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR  


.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS BASED ON SNOW MELT AND 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER SEMI FROZEN GROUND THAT WILL CAUSE QUICKER
WATER RUN-OFF...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC127-280252-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0312.081227T1214Z-081229T2052Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.081227T1214Z.081228T0600Z.081228T2052Z.NR/
852 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA
UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.3 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING 
  AND CONTINUE RISE TO NEAR 20.0 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.1 FEET...AGRICULTURAL LAND ALONG THE LEFT BANK 
  BEGINS FLOODING NEAR THE GAGE.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 341, NORTH OF PALMYRA, IS 
  FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS.  LEFT BANK BEGINS 
  TO FLOOD NEAR THE GAGE.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MARION COUNTY RD 341 NORTH OF PALMYRA 
  INUNDATED. SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL LAND FLOODING...RIGHT BANK.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 333, EAST OF PALMYRA, BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.


$$

MOC111-280251-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0310.081228T1513Z-081231T1800Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.081228T1513Z.081229T1200Z.081230T1800Z.NO/
852 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:15 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING AND 
  THEN RISE TO NEAR 15.0 FEET MONDAY MORNING. 


$$

MOC127-280251-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0313.081227T2234Z-081231T0210Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.081227T2234Z.081229T0000Z.081230T0210Z.NO/
852 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR
* UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
  AND THEN RISE TO NEAR 13.7 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS.
* IMPACT...AT 13.8 FEET...3000 ACRES ARE FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...COUNTY HIGHWAY 310 FLOODS WEST OF HIGHWAY 
  61-24.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...BOTH BANKS BEGIN TO OVERFLOW LOW LEVEL 
  FARMLANDS.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 117 WEST OF TAYLOR FLOODS.
* IMPACT...AT 9.5 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/27  12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31

NORTH RIVER
  PALMYRA          13   5.33      12.8   16.9    8.7    6.2    5.4

MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            12   5.09       6.1   11.3   15.0   13.2    8.6

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           10   3.44       5.9   12.4   12.4    7.8    5.2

000 
WGUS43 KLSX 271430
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
830 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI...

  NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY

  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR AFFECTING MARION COUNTY

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THE 
PAST 24 HOURS AND ANOTHER INCH AND A HALF FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER THAN 
PREDICTED.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS 
CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC111-281430-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0315.081228T0218Z-081231T1338Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.081228T0218Z.081229T0600Z.081230T1338Z.NO/
830 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* FROM THIS EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 15.8 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...LEFT BANK OVERFLOW DEVELOPS AT THIS HEIGHT 
  TOWARD MONTICELLO.

$$

MOC127-281429-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0313.081227T1421Z-081231T1500Z/
/TAYM7.2.ER.081227T1159Z.081229T0600Z.081230T1500Z.NO/
830 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR
* FROM THIS MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.0 FEET BY 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...COUNTY HIGHWAY 310 FLOODS JUST WEST OF 
  HIGHWAY 61-24.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...BOTH BANKS BEGIN TO OVERFLOW LOW LEVEL 
  FARMLANDS.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 117 WEST OF TAYLOR FLOODS.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01

NORTH FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            11  8.15      13.1   15.1   11.3    7.9    6.4

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           10 10.10      13.4   14.1    9.7    7.4    4.9

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 280254
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
853 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING 

  NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING 

  NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA 

  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR 

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF SNOW MELT AND WITH 2.5 INCH
RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC111-290253-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0315.000000T0000Z-081230T2145Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.081227T2155Z.081228T1200Z.081229T2145Z.NO/
853 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.3 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 15.5 FEET SUNDAY MORNING. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...LEFT BANK OVERFLOW DEVELOPS AT THIS HEIGHT 
  TOWARD MONTICELLO.


$$

MOC127-290252-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0312.000000T0000Z-081230T0336Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.081227T1210Z.081228T0600Z.081229T0336Z.NR/
853 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 8:01 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.6 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 19.5 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND   
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE EVENING SUNDAY. 
* IMPACT...AT 17.1 FEET...AGRICULTURAL LAND ALONG THE LEFT BANK 
  BEGINS FLOODING NEAR THE GAGE.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 341, NORTH OF PALMYRA, IS 
  FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS.  LEFT BANK BEGINS 
  TO FLOOD NEAR THE GAGE.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MARION COUNTY RD 341 NORTH OF PALMYRA 
  INUNDATED. SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL LAND FLOODING...RIGHT BANK.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 333, EAST OF PALMYRA, BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.


$$

MOC127-290252-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0313.000000T0000Z-081231T0748Z/
/TAYM7.2.ER.081227T1159Z.081228T1800Z.081230T0748Z.NO/
853 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR
* UNTIL TUESDAY.
* AT 7:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.6 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 14.9 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
  AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS.
* IMPACT...AT 13.8 FEET...3000 ACRES ARE FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...COUNTY HIGHWAY 310 FLOODS JUST WEST OF 
  HIGHWAY 61-24.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...BOTH BANKS BEGIN TO OVERFLOW LOW LEVEL 
  FARMLANDS.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 117 WEST OF TAYLOR FLOODS.
* IMPACT...AT 9.5 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.


$$

MOC111-290252-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0310.081228T0238Z-081231T1800Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.081227T2119Z.081229T1800Z.081230T1800Z.NO/
853 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 16.2 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON
  AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 16.6 FEET...LEFT BANK OVERFLOWS DOWNSTREAM OF BRIDGE 
  NEAR THE GAGE.
* IMPACT...AT 15.7 FEET...RIGHT BANK OVERFLOWS UPSTREAM OF BRIDGE 
  NEAR THE GAGE.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01

NORTH FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            11  13.32      15.5   12.3    9.1    6.9    5.7

NORTH RIVER
  PALMYRA          13  18.56      17.4   10.2    6.4    5.3    4.6

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           10  12.57      14.3   12.4    8.8    5.7    3.7

MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            12  14.27      15.1   15.8   13.9    7.6    5.8

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 281612
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1011 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI...

  NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY 
 
  MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY 

  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR AFFECTING MARION COUNTY 

  NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA AFFECTING MARION COUNTY 

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF ON AVERAGE 1 TO 1.2 INCHES OF 
PRECIPITATION THE PAST 24 HOURS AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION 
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC111-291611-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0315.000000T0000Z-081230T2136Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.081227T2155Z.081228T1800Z.081229T2136Z.NO/
1011 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.7 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 15.0 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...LEFT BANK OVERFLOW DEVELOPS AT THIS HEIGHT 
  TOWARD MONTICELLO.

$$

MOC111-291610-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0310.000000T0000Z-081231T1837Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.081227T2119Z.081230T0000Z.081230T1837Z.NO/
1011 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 16.2 FEET BY MONDAY EVENING AND 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.7 FEET...RIGHT BANK OVERFLOWS UPSTREAM OF BRIDGE NEAR
  THE GAGE.

$$

MOC127-291610-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0313.000000T0000Z-081230T1200Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.081227T1159Z.081228T0430Z.081229T1200Z.NO/
1011 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 117 WEST OF TAYLOR FLOODS.

$$

MOC127-291610-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0312.000000T0000Z-081230T0400Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.081227T1210Z.081228T0345Z.081229T0400Z.NO/
1011 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 1:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.3 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS.  LEFT BANK BEGINS 
  TO FLOOD NEAR THE GAGE.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MARION COUNTY RD 341 NORTH OF PALMYRA 
  INUNDATED. SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL LAND FLOODING...RIGHT BANK.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 333, EAST OF PALMYRA, BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01  01/02

NORTH FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            11   14.74    12.7    8.8    6.8    5.8    5.3

MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            12   14.60    15.6   14.0    7.7    5.7    5.0

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           10   10.95     9.5    7.3    5.5    4.2    3.8

NORTH RIVER
  PALMYRA          13   18.32    10.3    6.4    5.3    4.6    4.5

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 290248
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
847 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY 

  NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY 

  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR AFFECTING MARION COUNTY 

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF LASTEST HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
AND NO PRECIPIATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC111-300247-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0315.000000T0000Z-081231T0230Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.081227T2155Z.081229T1200Z.081230T0230Z.NO/
847 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 7:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.2 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 15.4 FEET MONDAY MORNING 
  AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...LEFT BANK OVERFLOW DEVELOPS AT THIS HEIGHT 
  TOWARD MONTICELLO.

$$

MOC111-300246-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0310.000000T0000Z-081231T1930Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.081227T2119Z.081230T0000Z.081230T1930Z.NO/
847 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 16.4 FEET MONDAY EVENING
  AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 16.6 FEET...LEFT BANK OVERFLOWS DOWNSTREAM OF BRIDGE 
  NEAR THE GAGE.


$$

MOC127-300246-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0313.000000T0000Z-081231T0800Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.081227T1159Z.081228T0430Z.081230T0800Z.NO/
847 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR
* UNTIL TUESDAY.
* AT 7:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 117 WEST OF TAYLOR FLOODS.
* IMPACT...AT 9.5 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01  01/02

NORTH FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            11  15.24      15.4    9.6    7.4    6.1    5.3


MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            12  14.78      16.0   14.5    7.8    5.7    5.1


SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           10  10.33       9.7    8.9    5.8    3.8    3.4

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 291646
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1046 AM CST MON DEC 29 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI...

  NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY 
 
  MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY 

  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR AFFECTING MARION COUNTY 

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY DECEMBER 27TH...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AND 
ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC111-301645-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0315.000000T0000Z-081231T0440Z/
/EWNM7.2.ER.081227T2155Z.081229T0700Z.081230T0440Z.NO/
1046 AM CST MON DEC 29 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TONIGHT.

$$

MOC111-301646-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0310.000000T0000Z-081231T1800Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.081227T2119Z.081229T1800Z.081230T1800Z.NO/
1046 AM CST MON DEC 29 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 15.5 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
  THEN BEGIN TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

$$

MOC127-301645-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0313.000000T0000Z-081231T1305Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.081227T1159Z.081228T0430Z.081230T1305Z.NO/
1046 AM CST MON DEC 29 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 10.8 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON 
  AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 117 WEST OF TAYLOR FLOODS.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/30  12/31  01/01  01/02  01/03


NORTH FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            11   13.54      10.1    7.8    6.5    5.7    5.3

MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            12   15.18      14.3    7.5    5.8    5.0    4.4

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           10   10.49       9.7    5.8    3.8    3.4    3.2

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 292256
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
456 PM CST MON DEC 29 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN MISSOURI...
 
  
     THE MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY 

     THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR AFFECTING MARION COUNTY 


.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC111-302256-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0310.000000T0000Z-081231T1738Z/
/EWMM7.1.ER.081227T2119Z.081229T2215Z.081230T1738Z.NO/
456 PM CST MON DEC 29 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 4:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.7 FEET...RIGHT BANK OVERFLOWS UPSTREAM OF BRIDGE 
  NEAR THE GAGE.


$$

MOC127-302255-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0313.000000T0000Z-081231T0800Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.081227T1159Z.081228T0430Z.081230T0800Z.NO/
456 PM CST MON DEC 29 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 3:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 117 WEST OF TAYLOR FLOODS.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/30  12/31  01/01  01/02  01/03

MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
  EWING            12 15.28      13.6    7.5    5.8    5.2    4.6


SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           10 10.41       8.9    5.8    3.8    3.4    3.2

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 301610
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1009 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI...
 
  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR AFFECTING MARION COUNTY

.THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS FLOODING EVENT...

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

MOC127-301639-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0313.000000T0000Z-081231T0800Z/
/TAYM7.1.ER.081227T1159Z.081228T0430Z.081230T1021Z.NO/
1009 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR.
* AT 9:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  4:21 AM TUESDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 7.0 FEET BY WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.5 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING BEGINS.

$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   12/31  01/01  01/02  01/03  01/04

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           10    9.24       7.0    4.5    3.5    3.3    3.2

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1216 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/229 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2008/

MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES TO
GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOWER SECTION OF WRN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS MO/IL THIS WEEKEND.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH HAS HAD GREAT CONTINUITY THE PAST
24 HOURS AND ALSO FOLLOWS THE OTHER MODELS BETTER THAN THE SLIGHT
FASTER AND DEEPER GFS. WITH THIS SAID...THE TREND THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM...SO DELAYED LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ENTERING THE ERN
PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND HELD ON TO THESE SAME HIGH POPS OVER
THE WRN PART OF THE CWA TOMORROW.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL/SWRN IL AND ERN MO WILL LIFT QUICKLY
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z. AFTER 12Z...NAM IS DEPICTING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF 925-850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE SRN AND ERN PART
OF THE CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE CHC OF SHRA IN THIS AREA...BUT JUST
SLGT CHC WITH SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE NWRN CWA WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. WEAK MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH BE FOUND ACROSS THR WHOLE CWA BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO GO WITH SCT SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA. PRECIP CHANCES JUMP TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE WRN CWA WHERE
STRONG CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
REACHING CNTRL AND NERN MO AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT BECAUSE
925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY BROAD 60KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ALONG WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES WHICH ARE VERY HIGH FOR LATE DECEMBER. HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND EXITS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURATED OR FROZEN GROUND WILL TURN
IMMEDIATELY INTO RUNOFF WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.  SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH 12Z LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO CNTRL MO LATE TONIGHT
WHERE 400-800 J/KG MUCAPES WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH IMPINGING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY PER SWODY2 WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
BE AS COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND 50KT 0-1KM SHEAR ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT FAVORS LINEAR
CONVECTION... THOUGH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SHEAR.

DO STILL EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES FALL BELOW FREEZING IN COLD AIR ADVECTIO.  SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER NERN MO/W CNTRL IL
WHICH WILL BE ON ERN EDGE OF DEFORMATION ZONE DEPICTED BY THE NAM.
HAVE KEPT ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH AS 500MB VORT TRACK AND
LOCATION OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FAVORS THE BEST SNOWFALL STAYING
WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1203 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

QUITE A RANGE OF CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DENSE
FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IL...VFR IN CENTRAL MO AND A COMBO OF
MVFR AND IFR ELSEWHERE. AT THE SAME TIME A STOUT 50+ SSWLY LLJ IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR LLWS. THINK THE GENERAL
TREND FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR CIGS TO LOWER INTO AND
TOWARDS THE LOW END OF THE MVFR CAT. THINKING THAT PCPN WILL BE
RATHER SPOTTY AT BEST. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIGS GRADUALLY TAKING
HOLD TONIGHT. MAIN PCPN THREAT SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
WDSPRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MO AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WDSPRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SAT. I
HESITATED TO PUT THUNDER IN THE MAIN BODY OF THE TAF ON SAT...BUT
IT IS QUITE LIKELY THERE WILL BE THUNDER OFF AND ON ALL DAY.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-
     GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-
     MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-
     ST. CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE.
     GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON
     IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-
     MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST.
     CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOND IL-
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-MARION IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1242 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
1242 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION AS HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON EITHER
SATURATED OR FROZEN GROUND. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS AND WATCH...PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS.

SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 IN MISSOURI AND
INTERSTATE 70 IN ILLINOIS.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECT TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UNDER AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW ON THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE REQUIRED
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

GLASS