Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Los Angeles, CA

000 
WGUS76 KLOX 270011
FFSLOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
411 PM PST WED NOV 26 2008

CAC037-270100-
/O.CON.KLOX.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-081127T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ANGELES CA-
411 PM PST WED NOV 26 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM PST FOR THE
MAREK...SAYRE AND BARHAM BURN AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

AT 345 PM PST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING ACROSS FOREST LAWN DRIVE NEAR THE BARHAM BURN AREA. HEAVY 
RAIN WAS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE MAREK BURN AREA AND EASTERN PORTIONS 
OF THE SAYRE BURN AREA. 

RAINFALL RATES OF 0.50 INCH AN HOUR WILL OCCUR OVER THESE RECENT 
BURN AREAS AND COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS THROUGH 
5 PM PST. 

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR BURN AREAS DURING 
HEAVY RAIN. 

LAT...LON 3418 11839 3423 11841 3437 11848 3437 11843
      3437 11840 3434 11836 3431 11834 3413 11832
      3413 11834
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 180DEG 0KT 3422 11838

$$

BOLDT

000 
WGUS76 KLOX 270058
FFSLOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
458 PM PST WED NOV 26 2008

CAC037-270105-
/O.EXP.KLOX.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-081127T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ANGELES CA-
458 PM PST WED NOV 26 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM PST FOR THE 
MAREK...SAYRE AND BARHAM BURN AREAS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXITING THE BURN AREAS AND WILL NO 
LONGER BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AT THIS TIME. 
THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM PST...HOWEVER RUNOFF 
AND MATERIAL FROM THE BURN AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL IN 
THESE AREAS FOR A WHILE LONGER. 

LAT...LON 3418 11839 3423 11841 3437 11848 3437 11843
      3437 11840 3434 11836 3431 11834 3413 11832
      3413 11834
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 180DEG 0KT 3422 11838

$$

BOLDT

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
320 PM PST WED NOV 26 2008

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY...FINALLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS BUILD A UPPER RIDGE JUST
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING...THEN GRADUALLY TURN OFFSHORE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

FORECAST WISE...WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT. IN FACT...BOTH MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES ACROSS VTU/LAX COUNTIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SHOWER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE VTU/LAX
MOUNTAINS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE
CONTINUED SHOWER THREAT...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR BURN
AREAS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEPENDING HOW THINGS DEVELOP...
THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING
TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS AND THE
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. AT THIS TIME...THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE
OFFSHORE WINDS IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH/BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS THAT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...OVERALL...NOTHING TOO
DRAMATIC IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW. AT
THIS TIME...THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PEAK
ON SUNDAY. SO...THERE MAY BE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW TEMPS SHOULD PEAK ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WILL GO WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT MEX MOS NUMBERS.

FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. SO...WILL EXPECT CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...26/2320Z.
MOST AIRPORTS WILL SEE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS AND -SHRA. SHOWERS WILL BE PERIODIC AND WILL BECOME
FOCUSED OVER LA/VTU/ AND SRN SBA COUNTIES. THE THREAT OF TSRA
REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...BUT MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME IFR CONDITIONS
WITH CIGS NEAR 015 AND VIS UNDER 3SM...BUT WILL BE BRIEF. THINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE THU MORNING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING.

KLAX...VFR CATS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...BUT WITH
CIGS ABOVE 040 AND VIS NEAR 6SM. RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE AS PERIODIC
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MVFR CATS ARE EXPECTED UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10 KT FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME.

KBUR...MVFR CATS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. RAIN WILL
ALSO CONTINUE AS PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IFR
CATS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST WED NOV 26 2008

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-271400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
600 AM PST WED NOV 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING HAZARDOUS WET ROADWAY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA AND ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN
AREAS. THESE STORM CONDITIONS WILL POSE HAZARDS TO BOATERS AS WELL.

PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS
ACROSS THE RECENT BURN AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL
WIND PRONE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PASSES
AND CANYONS. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT SANTA ANA
EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KAPLAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1047 AM PST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE SANTA BARBARA      34.46N 119.68W
11/25/2008                   SANTA BARBARA      CA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            LARGE ROCKS AND MUD ON PARTS OF HIGHWAY 192 AND MOUNTAIN
            DRIVE FROM THE TEA BURN AREA IN THE VICINITY OF WESTMONT
            COLLEGE

&&

MJ