Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Los Angeles, CA

000 
WGUS76 KLOX 261213
FFSLOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
413 AM PST WED NOV 26 2008

CAC037-261217-
/O.EXP.KLOX.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-081126T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ANGELES CA-
413 AM PST WED NOV 26 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 415 AM PST FOR THE
SANTA ANITA BURN AREA IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

RAIN ACROSS THE BURN AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY. THEREFORE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SANTA ANITA BURN AREA WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 415 AM PST.

LAT...LON 3420 11806 3419 11803 3416 11802 3417 11808
TIME...MOT...LOC 1207Z 180DEG 0KT 3418 11804

$$

MORE INFORMATION FROM THE USGS ON DEBRIS FLOWS AND THEIR IMPACTS
CAN BE FOUND AT HTTP://LANDSLIDES.USGS.GOV/RESEARCH/WILDFIRE
(ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS)

DB

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER CUT OFF LOW BEGINNING TO
PIVOT TO A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AROUND 250 NM OFF POINT CONCEPTION
AS IT CONTINUES TO PULL UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW BEGINNING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...THIS WILL HELP TO
INCREASE DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS GOOD DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE WITH THESE FRONTAL BANDS. EXPECT CONTINUED
TRAINING OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BANDS AS UPPER LOW WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL
WITH THE NAM-WRF AND GFS MODELS BRINGING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH LOS ANGELES COUNTY EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AFTER 9 PM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...THE GFS IS MORE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SBA COUNTY MTNS
AND VENTURA COUNTY MTNS WITH PRECIP TOTALS JUST UNDER 2.25 INCHES BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE OVER 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME LOCAL
RATES TO AROUND 4 INCHES IN THE FAVORED SOUTH FACING SLOPES BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS WITH 3/4 TO
1/12 INCHES INCH ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...WITH VALLEYS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH FACING MTNS. THERE WILL BE DECENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE SBA/VTU COUNTY MTNS AT 850 MB TO HELP ENHANCE RAIN
TOTALS...BUT LA COUNTY 850 MB WIND FIELD KEEPS WIND DIRECTION OUT OF
THE SE TO E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD HINDER OVERALL
RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT DUE TO TH W-E ORIENTATION OF THE SAN GABRIEL
RANGE AND WILL NOT BENEFIT WITH BEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER
SRN/CNTRL CAL BY WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BANDS SHOULD HAVE PUSHED
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD UPPER
LOW MOVING OVERHEAD WITH SOME POCKETS OF SUNSHINE AT THE
SURFACE...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE WITH RANDOM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS FOR DEBRIS
FLOWS FROM THE BURN AREAS AFTER THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THOUGH
BY MORNING AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS LA/VTU COUNTIES WED NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. AT THIS POINT...NAM-WRF
CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS OF LA/VTU COUNTIES. BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE COOL
WITH MOST COASTAL AND VALLEYS IN THE 60S...WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 ACROSS
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DRY BUT COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MODELS STILL INDICATING OFFSHORE FLOW FOR
THIS WEEKEND, PEAKING SUNDAY, THEN WEAKER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY WARMER EVENT THAN EARLIER RUNS SO IVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES MOST AREAS. STILL NOT A HOT SANTA
ANA EVENT WITH LOW ELEVATIONS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1940Z.
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...FIRST IMPACTING THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST BEFORE SPREADING NORTH AND EAST FROM THERE. BY
TONIGHT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. KLAX MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KLAX...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR BY EVENING AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF
EAST WINDS TO 10 KT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DIFFICULT ISSUE IS THE
TIMING OF RAINFALL. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE RAIN
STARTING LATER THAN IN THE CURRENT TAF.

KBUR...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR BY EVENING AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE DIFFICULT ISSUE IS
THE TIMING OF RAINFALL. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE RAIN
STARTING LATER THAN IN THE CURRENT TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN AREAS (SEE LAXFFALOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/WOFFORD
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
114 AM PST WED NOV 26 2008

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-270914-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
114 AM PST WED NOV 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING HAZARDOUS WET ROADWAY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA AND ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN
AREAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LIGHTNING HAZARDS TO ALL
AREAS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE DRIVING
HAZARDS ACROSS ALL OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORM CONDITIONS WILL POSE
HAZARDS TO BOATERS AS WELL.

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD ADVISORY.............SEE WGUS86 KLOX - FLSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING CAUSING THE POTENTIAL OF  FLOODING HAZARDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SNOW WILL FALL TO 6500 FEET CREATING HAZARDOUS MOUNTAIN TRAVEL.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL CREATE LOCAL DRIVING HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KAPLAN