Tornado Warning 17, NWS Chicago, IL

000 
WWUS53 KLOT 061916
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
216 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

ILC007-061930-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-080606T1930Z/
BOONE IL-
216 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR BOONE
COUNTY...

AT 211 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BELVIDERE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 54 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  CAPRON BY 225 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

LAT...LON 4222 8872 4222 8890 4235 8891 4248 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 228DEG 47KT 4228 8881

$$

000 
WWUS53 KLOT 061925
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
225 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

ILC007-061930-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-080606T1930Z/
BOONE IL-
225 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY...

AT 220 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR POPLAR GROVE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 56 MPH. A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A POSSIBLE 
WALL CLOUD NEAR THE CHRYSLER PLANT. 

LAT...LON 4230 8884 4237 8883 4247 8873 4244 8872
      4240 8872 4232 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 227DEG 49KT 4240 8871

$$

000 
WWUS53 KLOT 061932
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
231 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

ILC007-061941-
/O.EXP.KLOT.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-080606T1930Z/
BOONE IL-
231 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL BOONE COUNTY EXPIRED AT 230
PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA AND NO LONGER POSES A 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HOWEVER...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FRIDAY 
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. ADDITIONAL 
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 4230 8884 4237 8883 4247 8873 4244 8872
      4240 8872 4232 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 227DEG 49KT 4240 8871

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1259 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
400 AM CDT

RUNNING A LTL LATE THIS WITH PUBLIC FCST DISCUSSION DUE TO AN
EDITOR GLITCH EARLIER THIS MRNG.

ANYWAY...MAIN CONCERN NXT 24 HRS WILL BE SVR WX THREAT. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS DOWNGRADED MDT RISK TO A SLGT RISK FOR TDY. TEND TO
CONCUR WITH THIS DUE TO QUESTIONS ARISING FROM NEGATIVE EFFECTS ON
INSTABILITY AS REMNANTS OF SQLN NOW CROSSING MS RVR SPREAD NNEWD
ACROSS AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LO PRES SYS OVR SERN SD/SWRN MN
LIFTING NWD INTO MANITOBA TDY...LN OF CONVECTION TO W HAS ALREADY
BCM PARALLEL TO MID/UPR LVL WINDS. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN EWD MOVMT
OF SHALLOW TOPPED CONVECTION THRU THE MRNG HRS. TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND REMNANT PRESSURE TROF ASSD WITH SQLN WILL BE
FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE GROWTH THIS AFTN. RIGHT NOW THIS
FAVORS AREAS GENLY E OF I-55 WHERE AMS WILL BCM MORE UNSTABLE SO
THIS AREA WOULD ALSO CARRY GREATER SVR RISK WITH STGR UPDRAFTS
PRESENTING MORE OF A HAIL/WIND GUST THREAT. WILL HOWEVER KEEP
LIKELY POPS GOING ENTIRE AREA FOR GENERAL THUNDER. DESPITE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PRESENTING A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON TSTM INTENSITY
THRU MRNG/ERLY AFTN HRS...AMS IS FCST TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION AS SHRT WAVE ASSD WITH LOW OVR
ERN SD ROTATES NNEWD...ALLOWING MID LVL LAPSE RATES TO BCM A LTL
STEEPER WITH TIME TDY. WILL KEEP LINGERING TSTM THREAT THIS
EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS OVR NWRN IND/E CNTRL IL. STMS SHOULD
END OVERNIGHT AS TAIL OF SHRT WAVE LIFTS N AND E OF AREA BRINGING
TEMPORARY RIDGING THRU MID LVLS. BY LATE SAT LLVL FLOW BACKS AND
STRENGTHENS AGAIN...FOCUSING DECENT AMT OF LLVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO W AND NW OF AREA SAT...THEN LIFTING THIS NEWD
ACROSS FA LATE SAT-SAT EVENING AHD OF NXT SHRT WAVE. WILL HAVE
CHC TSTMS SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT WITH THIS RETURN TO TROPICIAL AIR
THRU LLVLS.

MID LVL WARMING INDICATED IN TIME-HGT CROSS SECTIONS LATER SAT NGT
AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH DURG THIS PERIOD
TO MORE ISOL STMS...MAINLY OVR NWRN PORTION OF FA. WILL ALSO FAVOR
RATHER HOT CONDITIONS AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO 18+. THEREFORE HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO LWR 90S ALG AND E OF I-55 CORRIDOR
WHERE INSOLATION IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER.

LTL CHG TO RMNDR FCST...WITH NXT FROPA DUE IN MON-MON EVENING. AT
PRESENT IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY MAY BE VERY SIMILAR TO SCENARIO THAT
PLAYS OUT TDY.

OTRW...TROFFING OVR NRN RCKYS AND RIDGG OVR ERN U.S. SUGGEST
MIDWEST/GRTLKS RGNS WILL REMAIN GENLY IN SUMMERLIKE TROPICAL AIR
THRU MIDWEEK WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DAY-TO-DAY CHCS FOR TSTMS.

MERZLOCK

&&

.AVIATION...

1800 UTC TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. COVERAGE STILL IS TOO WIDESPREAD TO PIN DOWN EXACT
ARRIVAL TIMES...AND TERMINALS LIKELY WILL SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE BASED ON EXPECTATION
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL NOT VARY
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO MANITOBA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  NEW TORNADO
WATCH COVERING THE WHOLE AREA IS BEING DISCUSSED WITH SPC AT THIS
MOMENT.

LENNING

&&

.MARINE...
915 AM CDT

JUST SENT THE MORNING GLFLM PRODUCT AND WANTED TO SHARE A FEW
THOUGHTS AND CONCERNS ABOUT THE DAY. WE WERE WONDERING WHETHER
WINDS WILL WARRANT A WARNING FOR GALES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE. GUSTS CERTAINLY WILL BE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD AT TIMES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD STAY A FEW KNOTS BELOW. HAVE DECIDED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR NOW BUT LEAVE THE GALE WARNING OUT OF
THE FORECAST. NEXT QUESTION IS WAVE HEIGHTS. THE LATEST METAR AND
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKE...BUT WE EXPECT A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH TO SET UP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MODERATING INFLUENCE WOULD BE STABILITY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WARM AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAIRLY COLD
LAKE. OUR WAVE MODEL ONLY GENERATES 4 TO 6 FEET AT THIS TIME...BUT
THIS ALSO WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

LENNING

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ740-LMZ741-
     LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1140 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
071645-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
1140 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008 /1240 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

   THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE...
   HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
   CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
   DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
   ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

   THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS
   MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
  TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
  THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
  ROTATES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
  WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS
  NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
  NUMEROUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
  AREA AND INTO INDIANA. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STORMS
  RACING NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH...AND STRONG DEEP WIND SHEAR
  WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH CONVECTIVE MODE EXPECTED
  TO BE A MIXTURE OF SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
  SUPERCELLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS INCLUDING
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND
  PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE
  EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
  INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A PATTERN ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
A THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW REFOCUSES FROM IOWA
INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY. STORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-071645-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
1140 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS
COMING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-071645-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TOW RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
1140 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH WARM AIR FLOWING OVER COLD LAKE WATERS WILL TEND TO KEEP
WINDS LOWER NEAR THE SURFACE...WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE
ESPECIALLY FOR TALLER VESSLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS AROUND THE REGION.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

RATZER