Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

.UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FOR..1..THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ON-GOING OVER THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA AND ..2..THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST DROPS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
HAIL...SOME SEVERE...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 55 MPH. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. MORE STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ZONES UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

IN THE SHORT TERM...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND THEN
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT.

MORNING SAT IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KY WHERE MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH DYING CONVECTION ARE STREAMING
EASTWARD.  SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND WILL
BE MAKING A RUN AT THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
MORNING AS SFC FRONT HEADS SE THROUGH THE REGION.  MAJORITY OF THE
NCEP OP MODELS AND SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST CONVECTION PICKING UP
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL KY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
INTERSECTING A WARMING AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS KY
THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AT THIS TIME...FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KY LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  LOCAL WRF MODEL RUNS AND OP NAM RUNS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND STABILITY THAN THE GFS...SO
HAVE TRENDED THE FCST IN THEIR DIRECTION.  LOOKING AT THINGS AS FAR
A SVR...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRETTY JUICED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH -4 TO -8 LIS.  THESE COMBINED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST MORE OF A HIGH CAPE...LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WOULD FAVOR MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION THAT COULD
END UP BOWING OUT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE.  HAIL THREAT
IS ALSO THERE...BUT FEEL THAT WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SVR
WX CONCERN TODAY.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN KY THIS EVENING AS
SFC FRONT CONTINUES EAST.  WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN THE FAR EAST
THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF THE ACTION SHOULD BE FINISHED IN OUR AREA
BY 03Z.

.LONG TERM (TUE THRU SUN)...

TUE THRU THU...

COOLER AND MAINLY DRY THRU THIS PERIOD.

OUR REGION STAYS IN CYCLONIC FLO THRU THIS PERIOD AS UPR LO LOOPS
ACRS THE UPR GREAT LAKES/CANADIAN BORDER...RESULTING IN VEERING UPR
LEVEL FLO TO NNW. SEVERAL IMPULSES FCST TO DROP SSE...THE MOST
NOTABLE ONE ON WED. AT THE SFC...BASICALLY WE ARE POSITIONED EAST OF
HIGH PRES OVER THE MS VLY THRU THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH GREATEST
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE/MOST STABLE AIR OVER OUR FA ON TUE...WHICH SHUD
RESULT IN A MOCLR DAY AS INDICATED BY CURRENT FCST. WILL MAKE SOME
CHGS WED AND THU...MAINLY TO ADD MORE CLOUDS. AFOREMENTIONED WED
IMPULSE...BASED ON TIMING/DIURNAL MAX OF HEATING/INSTABILITY COULD
BRING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR NERN PARTS WED AFTN/EVE...
BUT THE MOST ITS WORTH IS ABOUT A 20 POP AND WILL NOT INSERT AT
THIS TIME. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING DEEPEST MOISTURE AT
THIS TIME AS WELL WITH NEAR SATURATION BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MBS WITH
SIMILAR BUT SOMEWHAT LESS RH ON THU.

WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...WILL LOWER TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO ON WED/THU...MAINLY ACRS OUR ERN FA...WHERE CLDS SHUD BE MOST
PROMINENT.

NO CHANGES FOR THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...PREV DISC FOR THAT PERIOD
FOLLOWS:

THE ONLY PLAUSIBLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE OUT PERIOD COMES
AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. AT 5 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OR LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 30
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

CONVECTION TRYING TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TO THE NORTH
OF LMK FORECAST AREA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE AND EAST OF
LEXINGTON. SO FAR CONVECTION IS SPOTTY BUT WITH UNSTABLE AIR OVER
THE AREA WILL LEAVE VCNTY TSTMS IN TAFS. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE AT
LEX AND BWG.  COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR EXCEPT BRIEFLY LOWER IN ANY TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE........MBS
SHORT TERM....MJ
LONG TERM.....DK
AVIATION......MBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
415 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-170900-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
414 PM EDT (315 PM CDT) MON JUN 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD REACH
SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ALSO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND HAIL. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD SET OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SCHOLZ/TWF