Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
633 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

IN THE SHORT TERM...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND THEN
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT.

MORNING SAT IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KY WHERE MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH DYING CONVECTION ARE STREAMING
EASTWARD.  SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND WILL
BE MAKING A RUN AT THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
MORNING AS SFC FRONT HEADS SE THROUGH THE REGION.  MAJORITY OF THE
NCEP OP MODELS AND SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST CONVECTION PICKING UP
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL KY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
INTERSECTING A WARMING AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS KY
THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AT THIS TIME...FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KY LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  LOCAL WRF MODEL RUNS AND OP NAM RUNS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND STABILITY THAN THE GFS...SO
HAVE TRENDED THE FCST IN THEIR DIRECTION.  LOOKING AT THINGS AS FAR
A SVR...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRETTY JUICED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH -4 TO -8 LIS.  THESE COMBINED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST MORE OF A HIGH CAPE...LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WOULD FAVOR MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION THAT COULD
END UP BOWING OUT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE.  HAIL THREAT
IS ALSO THERE...BUT FEEL THAT WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SVR
WX CONCERN TODAY.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN KY THIS EVENING AS
SFC FRONT CONTINUES EAST.  WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN THE FAR EAST
THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF THE ACTION SHOULD BE FINISHED IN OUR AREA
BY 03Z.

.LONG TERM (TUE THRU SUN)...

TUE THRU THU...

COOLER AND MAINLY DRY THRU THIS PERIOD.

OUR REGION STAYS IN CYCLONIC FLO THRU THIS PERIOD AS UPR LO LOOPS
ACRS THE UPR GREAT LAKES/CANADIAN BORDER...RESULTING IN VEERING UPR
LEVEL FLO TO NNW. SEVERAL IMPULSES FCST TO DROP SSE...THE MOST
NOTABLE ONE ON WED. AT THE SFC...BASICALLY WE ARE POSITIONED EAST OF
HIGH PRES OVER THE MS VLY THRU THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH GREATEST
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE/MOST STABLE AIR OVER OUR FA ON TUE...WHICH SHUD
RESULT IN A MOCLR DAY AS INDICATED BY CURRENT FCST. WILL MAKE SOME
CHGS WED AND THU...MAINLY TO ADD MORE CLOUDS. AFOREMENTIONED WED
IMPULSE...BASED ON TIMING/DIURNAL MAX OF HEATING/INSTABILITY COULD
BRING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR NERN PARTS WED AFTN/EVE...
BUT THE MOST ITS WORTH IS ABOUT A 20 POP AND WILL NOT INSERT AT
THIS TIME. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING DEEPEST MOISTURE AT
THIS TIME AS WELL WITH NEAR SATURATION BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MBS WITH
SIMILAR BUT SOMEWHAT LESS RH ON THU.

WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...WILL LOWER TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO ON WED/THU...MAINLY ACRS OUR ERN FA...WHERE CLDS SHUD BE MOST
PROMINENT.

NO CHANGES FOR THE FRI-SUN PERIOD...PREV DISC FOR THAT PERIOD
FOLLOWS:

THE ONLY PLAUSIBLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE OUT PERIOD COMES
AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. AT 5 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OR LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 30
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING.  ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG OLD OUTFLOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.
COMBINATION OF WEAK PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED BUT MAY CONSOLODATE
INTO SMALL CLUSTERS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS LATER THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE KSDF AND KLEX TERMINALS
THIS MORNING AND KBWG LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KSDF/KLEX DUE TO WX/STORMS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM....MJ
LONG TERM.....DK
AVIATION......MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-170830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
430 AM EDT (330 AM CDT) MON JUN 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MJ/DK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
730 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

KYZ037-043-161200-
HARRISON-NICHOLAS-
730 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS HARRISON AND NORTHERN
NICHOLAS...

AT 726 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CYNTHIANA...OR 14 MILES
SOUTH OF FALMOUTH...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SCHOLZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
738 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

INZ077>079-084-090>092-KYZ029>034-038-045-161245-
WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-CRAWFORD IN-HARRISON IN-
FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-NELSON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
MARENGO...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...BARDSTOWN
738 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL MOVE EAST OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH 830 AM EDT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF WASHINGTON...
CLARK...FLOYD...HARRISON...AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN MEADE COUNTY OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

DK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
755 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

KYZ039-046-161330-
ANDERSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAWRENCEBURG...SPRINGFIELD
755 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WASHINGTON AND ANDERSON COUNTIES...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST FROM NELSON COUNTY INTO
NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND ANDERSON COUNTIES BY 8 AM EDT. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WASHINGTON AND ANDERSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM EDT.

SCHOLZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
806 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

INZ078-079-KYZ031>033-161315-
SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE
806 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL MOVE EAST OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH 900 AM EDT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF SCOTT AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OLDHAM...TRIMBLE AND HENRY
COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AS WELL.

DK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
807 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

KYZ036-037-042-043-161245-
BOURBON-HARRISON-NICHOLAS-SCOTT-
807 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SCOTT...HARRISON...BOURBON AND
NICHOLAS COUNTIES...

AT 805 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SCOTT..AND HARRISON COUNTIES...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...SMALL PEA
OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH... ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SCHOLZ