River Flood Warning 58, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
926 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

.MORNING UPDATE...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE COUNTIES
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE STORMS CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND A GOOD BIT OF LIGHTNING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THESE STORMS
WERE PART OF A LONG LINE OF STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY THEN SOUTH
INTO TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER
SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF I-65...

7Z RADAR TRENDS SHOWING STRONG STORMS OVER FORECAST AREA (FA) WITH A
FEW SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  EXPECT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAINLY OVER
THE KENTUCKY COUNTIES.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME FLASH FLOODING AND
SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED OVER OUR SW INDIANA COUNTIES.  EXPECT
THAT ANY FLOODING THREAT IN THESE COUNTIES WILL SOON BE COMING TO AN
END SOON HOWEVER AS STORMS ARE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH
12Z WITH A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE.  THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE DAMAGING WINDS.  THEN WE SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER
THIS LINE GETS THROUGH UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...A NEW LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THIS FEATURE.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS WOULD
BE SEVERE...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY AREAS EAST OF I-65.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS
ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA BY 0Z TO 3Z TONIGHT ENDING PRECIP
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG.  COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 35
TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WAS USED DUE TO ON-GOING SEVERE
WEATHER:

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONGER TERM WITH SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION DRIER
AIR WILL BRING A TEMPORARY END TO THE SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF FRIDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT THE DRY SLOT TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER SATURDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT A SECOND TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER AND INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.  THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY/S
MILD READINGS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER AND MID
50S. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THE AIR FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 50 DEGREES AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST ON
THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DRY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

MAIN TAF CONCERN WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
TO AFFECT THE BWG AND LEX TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL DECLINE TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE
TSRA THAT ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LINE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
SE OF SDF.  HAVE JUST INCLUDED A VCTS HERE.  HOWEVER...LEX AND BWG
WILL BE SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE TSRA.  SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

GRADIENT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY UP TO 30 TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AFTERNOON.  SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON SEVERE WINDS IN TAFS
HOWEVER UNTIL CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH WINDS DECREASING ALSO AND SHIFTING THE WEST.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.......MBS
SHORT TERM...AML
LONG TERM....MBS
AVIATION.....AML

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
455 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>032-061>063-070>074-120900-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-
LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
455 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008 /355 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM...THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-075>078-081-082-120900-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-
ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-
MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-
CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
455 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008 /355 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL... DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THEY PASS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION.

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM...THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF HAIL OR HIGH WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

AL

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