Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Louisville, KY

000 
WGUS73 KLMK 111028
FFSLMK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
627 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

INC037-111037-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-080411T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DUBOIS IN-
627 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 630 AM EDT/530 AM CDT/ FOR
DUBOIS COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING EARLIER 
THIS MORNING HAS LONG SINCE ENDED...AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL 
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3820 8708 3851 8707 3851 8688 3852 8687
      3853 8670 3825 8670 3825 8679 3821 8680
      3820 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1027Z 180DEG 0KT 3836 8689

$$

AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1206 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CONVECTION TO OUR WEST HAS TAKEN A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN THE LAST 30
MINUTES OR SO WITH THE CELL COMING OUT OF SPENCER COUNTY INDIANA
INTO PERRY COUNTY.  THIS STORM IS BOWING OUT A BIT AND MAY POSE A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT THROUGH NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HALF
HOUR.  WE ARE BECOMING A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
SETTING UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES.  FLOOD GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS.
THUS...WERE GOING TO WATCH THIS AREA VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE IN AN AREA OF STRONG
SFC CONFLUENCE AIDED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS NOSING INTO
THE REGION.  THIS SFC CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE SEEMS TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BLOW THROUGH THE CAP AND KEEPS AIDING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THIS WOULD AFFECT OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES AFTER 100 AM EDT/MIDNIGHT CDT.  THESE STORMS ARE VERY NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS WITH WARNINGS BEING ISSUED ATTM.  MAIN THREATS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.

.EVENING UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ARRIVAL TIME OF BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS NOW IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL HELICITY...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LACKING FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX. WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE
THREAT.

BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER THIS INITIAL LINE OF STORMS
PASS...EXPECT A NUMBER OF DRY HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN
INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...

UPR LOW OVER KANSAS STRENGTHENS ON ITS NEWD TRACK INTO IOWA BY 12Z
FRI AND MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRI.
SHRTWV TROF ON E/SE EDGE OF CLOSED CIRCULATION...FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN THRU 06Z TNGT AS IT APPROACHES STL AND THEN WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY 12Z AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST INDIANA. VORTICITY IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHEAR ENE INTO SRN INDIANA/OHIO FRI. BASED ON
THIS...MAXIMUM DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WOULD OCCUR
ACRS ERN MO/WRN IL EARLY TNGT WITH A LINEAR MCS LIKELY AHEAD OF
IT...MOVING INTO OUR WRN MOST CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT TNGT. THIS MCS
SHOWN BY THE MODELS WOULD BE AHEAD OF/ON PREFNTL TROF AS ASSOCIATED
SFC LO REACHES IOWA WITH A TRAILING CDFNT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MO.
THE COMBINATION OF MAX FORCING...AVAILABLE CAPE AND MAX WIND SHEAR
POINTS AT OUR SWRN MOST INDIANA COUNTIES AS MOST PRONE TO SVR STMS
LATE THIS EVE WITH JUST A BIT LESSER THREAT SWD INTO WCNTRL AND
SCNTRL KY...WEST OF I-65. SVR THREAT SHUD THEN WANE OVERNIGHT AS MCS
MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY. LATEST
DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS BACKED OFF THE MODERATE RISK FOR OUR WRN CWA AND
REPLACED WITH SLGT...WITH OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES JUST IN GENERAL
THUNDER.

NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINEAR MCS INTO OUR
CWA BY EARLY AFTN FRI...GFS LESS SO. THE ERN HALF OF OUR FA IN A
SLGT RISK...THOUGH IN A MINIMAL AREA COMPARED WITH THE BETTER
DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND BETTER INSTAB TO THE SOUTH. GRADIENT WINDS
FRI MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT WITH PREFNTL GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40
MPH...PONDERED A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE...BUT MAIN WINDS
SHUD HOLD OFF TIL LATE MORNING/AFTN FRI...SO WILL WAIT ON ANOTHER
MODEL RUN FOR SIMILAR MOS TRENDS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20 MPH RANGE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...LATE
TNGT...EARLY FRI. IF THIS OCCURS...MOST LIKELY ACRS SRN INDIANA...
IT IS OVER AN AREA WHICH DID NOT RECEIVE THE RAINS THAT CENTRAL KY
GOT ABOUT 10 DAYS AGO AND THE GROUND CAN HOLD MUCH MORE WATER NOW
WITH NEW/GROWING VEGETATION ABSORBING IT. NO FFA ATTM.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONGER TERM WITH SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...COOLER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION DRIER
AIR WILL BRING A TEMPORARY END TO THE SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF FRIDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT THE DRY SLOT TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER SATURDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT A SECOND TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER AND INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.  THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY/S
MILD READINGS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER AND MID
50S. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THE AIR FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 50 DEGREES AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST ON
THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DRY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

SKIES WILL CONTINUE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MID LEVEL CU AND VFR CIGS
UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE A LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS EACH TAF SITE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT STRONGER WINDS AT 2000 FEET WILL REQUIRE CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORMS IS 04Z TO 08Z AT SDF AND
BWG...AND 07Z TO 11Z AT LEX. DURING THE PASSAGE OF THESE
STORMS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

ONCE THESE STORMS PASS...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND MVFR
CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SHOULD
THESE DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.
WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE....MJ
SHORT TERM...JSD
LONG TERM....MBS
AVIATION.....JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1100 PM EDT THU APR 10 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074-
110845-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-
NELSON KY-LARUE KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
1100 PM EDT THU APR 10 2008 /1000 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG. DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY
BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF HAIL OR HIGH WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082-110845-
FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1100 PM EDT THU APR 10 2008 /1000 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 2 AM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF HAIL OR HIGH WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1032 PM EDT THU APR 10 2008

INZ083-110445-
DUBOIS IN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JASPER
932 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA OVER
THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WITH BE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO
OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

NF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1108 PM EDT THU APR 10 2008

INZ083-110415-
DUBOIS IN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JASPER
1008 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

A THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH WITH ENTER DUBOIS
COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO
OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

NF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1108 PM EDT THU APR 10 2008

INZ083-110415-
DUBOIS IN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JASPER
1008 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

A THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH WILL ENTER DUBOIS
COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO
OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

NF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1221 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

INZ076-077-083-084-089-090-110515-
CRAWFORD-DUBOIS-HARRISON-ORANGE-PERRY-WASHINGTON-
1221 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2008

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CRAWFORD... DUBOIS...
HARRISON... ORANGE... PERRY AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 1217 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA AT 50 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE-QUARTERS TO ONE INCH AN HOUR
ARE LIKELY...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

AL